Top-Down vs. Bottom-Up Credit Research Workflow

Starting credit research from the wrong direction cost analysts dearly in 2008. Researchers who built beautiful issuer-level models for Lehman, Bear Stearns, and Washington Mutual missed the sector-wide contagion that made their bottom-up work irrelevant. The average downgrade severity jumped from 2.5 notches in 2005-2006 to 5.6 notches in 2008 (Benmelech & Dlugosz, 2009). The durable lesson: where you start your analysis determines whether you catch systemic risk or get blindsided by it.

Why Starting Point Matters (The Core Trade-off)

Credit research isn't about choosing top-down or bottom-up. It's about sequencing them correctly based on market conditions.

Top-down first works when macro forces dominate:

• Fed hiking cycles (2022-2023: investment-grade spreads moved +100 bps regardless of issuer quality)
• Sector-wide stress (2020 energy: oil collapse hit all E&P names before balance sheets showed strain)
• Credit cycle inflection points (late-cycle: rising defaults across rating cohorts)

Bottom-up first works when:

• Macro is stable and well-priced
• Idiosyncratic opportunities exist (mispriced fallen angels, distressed turnarounds)
• Sector dispersion is high (some issuers thriving while peers struggle)

The point is: the starting direction is a risk management decision, not a philosophical preference.

Top-Down Workflow (When Macro Dominates)

When sector-level forces overwhelm issuer fundamentals, start here:

Phase 1: Macro Overlay

Ask these questions before touching a single issuer:

• Where are we in the credit cycle? (Early recovery, mid-cycle expansion, late-cycle, recession)
• What's the Fed doing? (Rate cuts favor HY duration; hikes punish leveraged names)
• Which sectors face structural headwinds? (Regulatory, technological, cyclical)

Phase 2: Sector Screen

Rank sectors by:

• Spread per unit of leverage (compensated risk vs. uncompensated)
• Sector default rates vs. current spread levels
• Earnings momentum direction

The calculation: Sector Relative Value = Sector OAS / Sector Average Leverage

A sector trading at 350 bps with average leverage of 4.5x offers 78 bps per turn of leverage. Compare that to a sector at 150 bps with leverage of 2.0x (only 75 bps per turn). The first sector offers better risk-adjusted compensation (if default risk is similar).

Phase 3: Issuer Selection Within Favored Sectors

Only now do you apply bottom-up filters:

• Interest coverage ratio > 3.0x (distress probability rises sharply below 1.5x)
• Net leverage < 4.0x for investment-grade candidates
• Free cash flow positive after capex and dividends

The durable lesson: top-down constrains your universe first, preventing you from finding the "best house in a bad neighborhood."

Bottom-Up Workflow (When Fundamentals Dominate)

When macro is stable (mid-cycle, rates range-bound), issuer selection drives alpha:

Phase 1: Quantitative Screen

Start with credit metrics that predict stress:

Phase 2: Qualitative Deep-Dive (The Four C's)

For names passing the screen:

Capacity (can they pay?):

• Cash flow stability through cycles
• Working capital requirements
• Capex flexibility (maintenance vs. growth)

Collateral (what do lenders recover?):

• Asset quality and liquidity
• Recovery rate history for the sector (secured debt: 60-70% typical; unsecured: 30-40%)

Covenants (early warning system):

• Leverage and coverage maintenance tests
• Restricted payments (dividend and buyback limits)
• Change of control protections

Character (management track record):

• Historical treatment of creditors
• Capital allocation discipline
• Disclosure quality and transparency

Phase 3: Relative Value

Compare your candidate to:

• Sector peers at similar leverage
• The issuer's own curve (front-end vs. long-end)
• CDS basis (bond spread vs. CDS spread)

A bond trading 50 bps wide of where its leverage implies (based on sector regression) is cheap. But verify it's not cheap for a reason (hidden liability, pending litigation, covenant breach risk).

Worked Example: Hybrid Approach in Practice

Scenario: December 2024. You manage a corporate bond portfolio and need to deploy $10 million.

Step 1: Top-Down Assessment

• Credit cycle: Mid-to-late cycle. Spreads at 75 bps for IG (tightest since late 1990s). Little margin for error.
• Fed policy: Rates peaked, cuts expected in 2025. Duration extension favored.
• Sector stress: Commercial real estate (CRE) facing refinancing wall; avoid.

Your top-down conclusion: Favor higher-quality IG over HY (spreads don't compensate for late-cycle default risk). Avoid CRE-exposed issuers. Prefer 5-7 year maturities to benefit from curve normalization.

Step 2: Sector Selection

Screening sectors by spread per leverage:

Your sector pick: Technology offers best spread compensation per turn of leverage, with secular tailwinds and low cyclicality.

Step 3: Bottom-Up Selection

Within technology, you screen:

• Net Debt/EBITDA < 3.0x
• Interest coverage > 4.0x
• FCF positive

Candidate: TechCo Inc.

• Net Debt/EBITDA: 2.4x
• Interest coverage: 6.2x
• FCF/Debt: 18%
• 5-year bond trading at: T+110 bps

Spread decomposition:

• Sector median for similar leverage: T+95 bps
• TechCo premium: +15 bps

Why the premium? Recent acquisition integration risk. But four C's analysis shows strong cash flow capacity to de-lever within 18 months.

Your conclusion: Buy at T+110 bps. The 15 bps premium compensates for near-term noise; fundamentals support convergence to sector median.

Detection Signals (When You're Using the Wrong Approach)

You're likely misaligned if:

• Your issuer picks keep getting hit by "unexpected" sector moves (you're bottom-up when macro dominates)
• You're avoiding sectors wholesale despite wide dispersion in issuer quality (you're too top-down)
• Your thesis relies on "this name is different" without quantifying why (ignoring sector correlation)
• You can't articulate where you are in the credit cycle (missing the top-down overlay)
• Your coverage ratio analysis ignores what interest rates will be at refinancing (static analysis)

The practical antidote: run a quick mental check before every position. "Is macro stable enough that issuer selection drives outcomes, or are sector-level forces dominating?"

Credit Research Checklist (Tiered by ROI)

Essential (High ROI)

These four steps prevent 80% of credit research errors:

1. Identify credit cycle position before issuer analysis (early, mid, late, recession)
2. Check sector-level stress indicators (default rates, spread percentile, earnings momentum)
3. Verify interest coverage > 3.0x (below 1.5x = 50% higher distress probability within 2 years)
4. Confirm net leverage appropriate for rating target (IG: < 3.0x; HY: < 5.0x)

High-Impact (Workflow Automation)

For systematic credit processes:

1. Build sector relative value screen (OAS / leverage ranking)
2. Automate covenant monitoring (leverage tests, coverage floors)
3. Track issuer CDS basis for dislocation signals
4. Set calendar reminders for refinancing walls (2+ years out)

Optional (For Concentrated Portfolios)

If you're running high-conviction credit positions:

1. Model scenario analysis (rates +200 bps, EBITDA -20%)
2. Map supplier/customer credit exposure (counterparty contagion)
3. Track management compensation incentives (equity vs. credit alignment)

When the Hybrid Fails (The Nuance)

The hybrid approach has blind spots:

Rapid regime change: When macro shifts faster than your process (March 2020: spreads blew out +400 bps in weeks). Your sector analysis becomes stale overnight. The practical antidote: maintain a "stress positioning" overlay that doesn't depend on current macro assessment.

Unprecedented sector risk: Your top-down framework relies on historical patterns. Novel risks (fintech disruption of banks, AI impact on services) don't have historical spread templates. The practical antidote: increase margin of safety for sectors facing structural unknowns.

Liquidity illusion: Your bottom-up analysis says "buy," but the bond trades 5 bps offered-side in normal markets and gaps 50 bps in stress. Small allocations only for illiquid names.

Next Step (Put This Into Practice)

Audit your last three credit decisions using the hybrid framework.

How to do it:

1. For each position, write down: Did I start top-down or bottom-up?
2. Identify: Was macro stable or dominant at the time of purchase?
3. Check: Did my starting point match the environment?

Interpretation:

• 3/3 matches: Your process aligns with conditions
• 1-2/3 matches: Review the mismatches for pattern recognition
• 0/3 matches: Your default approach may be costing alpha

Action: If you find consistent mismatches, implement a one-minute pre-trade checklist: "Is macro stable (bottom-up first) or dominant (top-down first)?"

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References

Benmelech, E. & Dlugosz, J. (2009). The Credit Rating Crisis. NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 24, pp. 161-207.

CFA Institute. (2025). Fixed-Income Active Management: Credit Strategies. CFA Program Curriculum.

Moody's Investors Service. (2021). Rating Methodology: Corporates.

Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. (2023). Interest Expenses, Coverage Ratio, and Firm Distress. Current Policy Perspectives.