Hedging Foreign Stock Positions

Why Currency Exposure Matters

When US investors buy foreign stocks, they take on two distinct risks: equity price risk and currency risk. A European stock might rise 15% in euro terms, but if the euro falls 10% against the dollar, the US investor's return is only about 4%.

The math works as follows:

Total Return (USD) = (1 + Local Return) × (1 + Currency Return) - 1

Example with €100,000 investment in European equities:

• European stock rises 15% (€100,000 → €115,000)
• EUR/USD falls from 1.10 to 1.00 (9.1% depreciation)
• USD value: €115,000 × 1.00 = $115,000
• Original USD value: €100,000 × 1.10 = $110,000
• Actual USD return: ($115,000 - $110,000) / $110,000 = 4.5%

Currency moves can dominate equity returns. Annual currency volatility for developed market pairs runs 8-12%, compared to 15-20% for equity markets. For a diversified international portfolio, currency exposure adds meaningful risk without necessarily adding expected return.

Hedge Ratio Decisions

The hedge ratio determines what percentage of currency exposure to offset. Three common approaches:

0% Hedge (Unhedged)

Arguments for:

• Currency diversification may benefit long-term portfolios
• Transaction costs avoided
• Natural hedge if future liabilities are in foreign currency
• Over very long horizons (20+ years), currencies may mean-revert

Best for: Long-term investors who view currency exposure as diversification, or those with natural foreign currency needs.

100% Hedge (Fully Hedged)

Arguments for:

• Eliminates currency volatility entirely
• Returns match local equity market returns
• Easier performance attribution
• Reduces total portfolio volatility

Best for: Investors focused on foreign equity selection without currency views, institutional investors with domestic currency liabilities.

50% Hedge (Partial Hedge)

Arguments for:

• Reduces volatility without eliminating diversification
• Acknowledges uncertainty about optimal hedge ratio
• Balances hedging costs against risk reduction
• Common institutional compromise

Best for: Investors uncertain about currency direction, those wanting to reduce but not eliminate currency risk.

Research suggests 50-70% hedge ratios often minimize portfolio volatility for US investors with developed market equity exposure.

Hedging Instruments

Currency Forwards

Forward contracts are the primary hedging tool for institutional investors.

Structure: Agreement to exchange currencies at a specified rate on a future date.

Example: Hedge €500,000 European equity exposure for 3 months

• Current spot: EUR/USD = 1.0800
• 3-month forward: EUR/USD = 1.0750 (50 points lower)
• Contract: Sell €500,000 forward at 1.0750

If spot moves to 1.0500 at expiration:

• Forward gain: (1.0750 - 1.0500) × €500,000 = $12,500
• This offsets the currency loss on the equity position

Pros: Customizable amounts and dates, no upfront premium, OTC flexibility Cons: Counterparty credit risk, minimum sizes ($100,000+), rolling required

Currency Futures

Exchange-traded alternatives to forwards, available on CME and other exchanges.

Contract specifications (EUR/USD futures):

• Contract size: €125,000
• Tick size: $0.00005 (= $6.25 per tick)
• Margin requirement: approximately $2,500 per contract
• Settlement: March, June, September, December

Example: Hedge €500,000 position

• Contracts needed: €500,000 / €125,000 = 4 contracts
• Sell 4 EUR/USD futures

Pros: Exchange-traded (no counterparty risk), standardized, liquid Cons: Fixed contract sizes create basis risk, margin requirements

Currency-Hedged ETFs

For individual investors, currency-hedged ETFs provide built-in hedging.

Popular hedged international equity ETFs:

Pros: Simple implementation, no rolling required, accessible to retail Cons: Higher expense ratios, tracking error, less precision

Cost of Hedging: Forward Points

Hedging is not free. The cost equals the interest rate differential between the two currencies, reflected in forward points.

Covered Interest Rate Parity:

Forward Rate = Spot Rate × (1 + Domestic Rate) / (1 + Foreign Rate)

Example calculation (hedging EUR exposure as USD investor):

• Spot EUR/USD: 1.0800
• USD 3-month rate: 5.25%
• EUR 3-month rate: 3.75%
• Interest differential: 1.50% annually (0.375% for 3 months)

Forward Rate = 1.0800 × (1.05250^0.25) / (1.03750^0.25) Forward Rate ≈ 1.0760

The forward is 40 points (0.0040) below spot. Selling EUR forward at 1.0760 instead of 1.0800 represents a 0.37% cost for 3 months, or approximately 1.5% annualized.

Hedging cost varies by currency pair:

When US rates exceed foreign rates, hedging costs money. When foreign rates exceed US rates, hedging generates income.

Rolling Hedges and Rebalancing

Forward hedges have finite maturities and require periodic rolling.

Rolling Process

At each roll date:

1. Existing forward expires and settles
2. New forward established at current spot and forward points
3. Settle the gain/loss from the expiring contract
4. Adjust notional if portfolio value has changed

Rolling example (quarterly rolls):

• Q1: Sell €500,000 forward at 1.0750
• At Q1 expiry: Spot = 1.0500, forward settles with $12,500 gain
• Q2: Portfolio now worth €520,000, sell €520,000 forward at new rate

Rebalancing Considerations

Under-hedge risk: If foreign stocks appreciate significantly, the hedge covers less than the actual exposure.

Over-hedge risk: If foreign stocks decline significantly, the hedge exceeds the exposure.

Frequency tradeoff: More frequent rebalancing maintains tighter hedge ratios but increases transaction costs.

Practical approach: Rebalance when hedge ratio drifts beyond 90-110% of target, or at fixed intervals (monthly/quarterly).

Worked Example: Hedging €500,000 European Equity Position

Initial Setup

Portfolio: €500,000 in European large-cap equities Hedge ratio: 100% Spot EUR/USD: 1.0800 USD value: €500,000 × 1.0800 = $540,000 Hedge instrument: 3-month forward Forward rate: 1.0750

Action: Sell €500,000 forward at 1.0750

Scenario 1: Euro Weakens

After 3 months:

• European stocks: unchanged at €500,000
• Spot EUR/USD: 1.0300 (4.6% depreciation)

Unhedged outcome:

• Portfolio USD value: €500,000 × 1.0300 = $515,000
• Loss: $540,000 - $515,000 = $25,000 (4.6%)

Hedged outcome:

• Portfolio USD value: $515,000
• Forward gain: (1.0750 - 1.0300) × €500,000 = $22,500
• Hedging cost: (1.0800 - 1.0750) × €500,000 = $2,500
• Net position: $515,000 + $22,500 = $537,500
• Net loss: $540,000 - $537,500 = $2,500 (0.5%, the hedging cost)

Scenario 2: Euro Strengthens

After 3 months:

• European stocks: +10% to €550,000
• Spot EUR/USD: 1.1200 (3.7% appreciation)

Unhedged outcome:

• Portfolio USD value: €550,000 × 1.1200 = $616,000
• Gain: $616,000 - $540,000 = $76,000 (14.1%)

Hedged outcome:

• Portfolio USD value: $616,000
• Forward loss: (1.0750 - 1.1200) × €500,000 = -$22,500
• Note: Only €500,000 was hedged, not €550,000 (under-hedge)
• Net position: $616,000 - $22,500 = $593,500
• Net gain: $593,500 - $540,000 = $53,500 (9.9%)

The hedge eliminated most currency impact but created under-hedge drag when stocks appreciated and EUR strengthened.

Scenario 3: Stocks Fall, Euro Weakens

After 3 months:

• European stocks: -15% to €425,000
• Spot EUR/USD: 1.0300

Hedged outcome:

• Portfolio USD value: €425,000 × 1.0300 = $437,750
• Forward gain: (1.0750 - 1.0300) × €500,000 = $22,500
• Over-hedge: Hedged €500,000 but only own €425,000
• Net position: $437,750 + $22,500 = $460,250
• Net loss: $540,000 - $460,250 = $79,750 (14.8%)

The over-hedge provided a partial offset to equity losses but would have caused larger losses if EUR had strengthened.

Implementation Checklist

Before hedging foreign equity exposure:

• Calculate total foreign currency exposure across all positions
• Determine appropriate hedge ratio based on investment horizon and risk tolerance
• Compare hedging costs (forward points) to expected risk reduction
• Choose instrument: forwards (institutional), futures (intermediate), hedged ETFs (retail)
• Establish rolling schedule if using forwards/futures
• Set rebalancing triggers for drift in hedge ratio
• Document hedging policy for consistent execution

Currency hedging adds complexity and cost to international investing, but can significantly reduce portfolio volatility. The decision depends on investment horizon, currency views, and risk preferences. For most individual investors, currency-hedged ETFs provide an accessible solution, while institutional portfolios typically use forwards for greater precision and lower total costs.