Markets and Macro
Educational articles about markets and macro.
Subcategories
Economic Indicators
20 articles
Monetary Policy and Central Banks
20 articles
Fiscal Policy and Government Finance
20 articles
Market Cycles and Regimes
20 articles
Currency Markets and FX Strategy
20 articles
Commodities and Energy Markets
20 articles
Global Trade and Emerging Markets
20 articles
Geopolitics and Risk Events
20 articles
Articles
Investor Playbooks for Fiscal Announcements
**Fiscal announcements move markets in predictable patterns.** When the Treasury announced larger-than-expected borrowing needs in August 2023 (an ad...
Transparency and Data Sources for Fiscal Analysis
**The United States publishes more fiscal data than any other major economy.** The Treasury Department releases daily cash position reports, monthly ...
Tracking Appropriations and Continuing Resolutions
**The federal government has operated under at least one continuing resolution in 47 of the past 48 fiscal years.** Since FY 1977, Congress has compl...
Fiscal Policy During Recessions vs. Expansions
**Fiscal policy operates differently across economic cycles.** During the 2008-2009 recession, the federal deficit expanded from **$459 billion (3.1%...
Entitlement Reform Debates
Mandatory spending programs—Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid—consume **63%** of the federal budget and are projected to reach **78%** by 2054 ...
Cost-Benefit Analysis of Major Programs
The Congressional Budget Office scores **300-400** pieces of legislation annually, estimating costs and effects over 10-year windows (CBO, 2024). Cos...
Public-Private Partnership Financing Models
Public-private partnerships (P3s) finance **$30-50 billion** in U.S. infrastructure projects annually (Congressional Budget Office, 2024). These arra...
State and Local Fiscal Health Indicators
State and local governments manage **$4.1 trillion** in combined annual budgets (Census Bureau, FY 2023). Their fiscal health directly affects munici...
Election Cycles and Market Volatility
Elections inject policy uncertainty into markets. The outcome determines tax rates, regulatory regimes, trade policy, and government spending prioriti...
Mapping Geopolitical Risk to Asset Classes
Geopolitical events affect portfolios through identifiable transmission channels. A Middle East conflict raises oil prices, triggers flight-to-quality...
Glossary: Geopolitical Risk Terms
This glossary defines key geopolitical risk terms used in investment analysis and portfolio management. Terms are listed alphabetically with cross-r...
Building a Risk Event Dashboard
A structured risk event dashboard reduces the likelihood of being surprised by developments that affect portfolio value. Research on institutional i...
Humanitarian Crises and Market Sentiment
Humanitarian crises create sentiment shocks that often exceed their direct economic impact. During the early weeks of major humanitarian events, imp...
Travel and Mobility Restrictions on Business
Travel and mobility restrictions create immediate revenue disruptions for exposed sectors. During the 2020 global travel restrictions, the airline i...
Crisis Communication Playbooks
Effective crisis communication reduces stakeholder anxiety and prevents reactive decision-making. Research on investor behavior during the 2020 mark...
Black Swan Events and Tail Hedging
# Black Swan Events and Tail Hedging **Difficulty:** Advanced **Published:** 2025-12-31 The 2008 financial crisis destroyed **$10 trillion** ...
Regulation of Critical Technologies
# Regulation of Critical Technologies **Difficulty:** Intermediate **Published:** 2025-12-31 Technology export controls reduced semiconductor...
Case Studies: Trade Wars and Markets
# Case Studies: Trade Wars and Markets **Difficulty:** Intermediate **Published:** 2025-12-31 Trade conflicts have cost global equity markets...
Geopolitical Intelligence Sources to Monitor
# Geopolitical Intelligence Sources to Monitor **Difficulty:** Beginner **Published:** 2025-12-31 Investors who monitor geopolitical developm...
Scenario Planning Workshops for Investors
Institutional investors who conduct structured scenario planning outperform reactive peers by **150-200 basis points annually** during crisis period...
Insurance Markets for Political Risk
**Political risk insurance (PRI) transfers the financial consequences of government actions from investors to insurers.** The global PRI market prov...
Supply Chain Resilience Strategies
**Supply chain resilience measures a company's ability to maintain operations through disruption.** The COVID-19 pandemic revealed concentrated vuln...
Climate Policy and Transition Risks
**Transition risk refers to financial losses from policy, technology, or market changes during the shift to a lower-carbon economy.** Unlike physica...
Energy Security and Strategic Reserves
**Strategic petroleum reserves exist to buffer supply disruptions that markets cannot absorb quickly.** The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) h...
Cybersecurity Threats to Financial Infrastructure
**Financial infrastructure operates on interconnected digital systems that present concentrated attack surfaces.** A successful breach of a major pa...
Pandemic Preparedness and Market Response
**Pandemic risk creates market impacts through three channels: demand destruction, supply chain disruption, and policy response uncertainty.** The C...
Global Conflict Scenarios and Energy Markets
**Energy markets are the most direct transmission channel for conflict risk to global portfolios.** When military tensions escalate in oil-producing...
Sanctions and Export Controls Impact
**Sanctions and export controls have evolved from foreign policy tools to material investment risks.** The number of active U.S. sanctions programs ...
Opportunistic Strategies Post-Recession
**Recessions create the conditions for outsized returns.** When unemployment peaks, credit spreads blow out, and equity valuations compress, the stage...
How Infrastructure Bills Flow Through the Economy
Infrastructure legislation creates headlines when passed, but the economic impact unfolds over years, not months. The 2021 Infrastructure Investment a...
Tax Policy Changes and Investor Impact
Tax policy changes alter the after-tax returns on investments, corporate profitability, and the relative attractiveness of different asset classes. Th...
Sovereign Credit Ratings for the United States
The United States no longer holds the top credit rating from all major agencies. S&P downgraded the US from AAA to AA+ in 2011; Fitch followed in 2023...
Congressional Budget Office Forecasts
The Congressional Budget Office produces the official economic and budget projections that Congress uses for lawmaking. CBO forecasts shape fiscal pol...
Commodities as Cycle Signals
## Why Commodities Signal Economic Cycles Commodities occupy a unique position in the economic system. Unlike financial assets that represent claims ...
Playbooks for Late-Cycle Investing
**Late-cycle investing requires a shift in priorities.** After years of expansion, the economy shows signs of strain: unemployment bottoms, inflation ...
Building Regime Models for Portfolios
## What Regime Models Aim to Accomplish Regime models attempt to identify the current market environment and adjust portfolio allocations accordingly...
Factor Leadership Across Market Cycles
## What Factors Are and Why They Rotate Factor investing organizes equity returns around systematic characteristics that explain why certain stocks o...
Credit Cycle Evolution and Signals
## The Credit Cycle Framework Credit cycles describe the recurring patterns of borrowing, lending, and default that shape economic activity and asset...
Volatility Regimes and VIX Thresholds
## What the VIX Measures and Why It Matters The CBOE Volatility Index, commonly known as the VIX, represents the market's expectation of 30-day forwa...
Liquidity Regimes and Financial Conditions
## The Role of Liquidity in Financial Markets Liquidity is the lifeblood of financial markets. It refers to the ease with which assets can be bought ...
Glossary: Trade and Emerging Market Terms
## Introduction This glossary provides clear definitions for key terms related to global trade and emerging market investing. Terms are organized alp...
Tracking WTO and Geopolitical Developments
## Why WTO and Geopolitical Monitoring Matters Trade policy changes can materially affect company earnings and sector valuations. When the US imposed...
Trade Financing and Letters of Credit
## Why Trade Finance Matters for Investors International trade creates a fundamental problem: a buyer in one country wants goods from a seller in ano...
Case Studies: NAFTA and USMCA Impacts
## NAFTA: A 25-Year Experiment in Regional Trade The North American Free Trade Agreement entered force on January 1, 1994, creating a free trade zone...
Using Trade Data Dashboards
## Why Trade Data Dashboards Matter for Investors Trade data reveals the movement of goods and services across borders, and these flows have direct i...
Global Logistics Bottlenecks
Global supply chains operate like a vast plumbing system connecting factories to consumers. When that system flows smoothly, goods move efficiently an...
Nearshoring and Manufacturing Relocation
The pandemic-era supply chain chaos and rising US-China tensions have accelerated a fundamental shift in how companies think about manufacturing locat...
Multinational Tax Changes and Trade
The rules governing how multinational corporations pay taxes are undergoing their most significant transformation in a century. The OECD's global mini...
Political Risk Insurance Tools
Investing in emerging markets offers growth potential that mature economies cannot match, but it comes with risks that balance sheets and income state...
Commodity Exporters vs Importers: Impact on the US
The global economy divides roughly into two camps when it comes to raw materials: countries that dig things out of the ground and grow them, and count...
Country Risk Assessment Framework
## Why Country Risk Assessment Matters Country risk encompasses the political, economic, and financial factors that can affect investment returns in ...
Emerging Market Debt vs. Equity Opportunities
## Risk and Return Differences: EM Bonds vs. EM Equities Emerging market assets offer US investors potential diversification benefits and access to f...
Capital Controls and Repatriation Rules
## What Capital Controls Are and Why Countries Use Them Capital controls are government-imposed restrictions on cross-border financial transactions. ...
Currency Pegs vs. Floating Regimes
## Exchange Rate Regime Fundamentals Exchange rate regimes define how a country manages its currency's value relative to other currencies. The choice...
Foreign Direct Investment and US Policy
## What Foreign Direct Investment Is and Why It Matters Foreign direct investment (FDI) represents cross-border capital flows where an investor in on...
Monitoring Import and Export Data Releases
Trade data releases move currency markets, affect sector valuations, and signal economic momentum changes. But the monthly trade report contains dozen...
Supply Chain Shocks and Reshoring Trends
When the container ship Ever Given blocked the Suez Canal for six days in March 2021, it created **$9.6 billion** in delayed trade per day—a vivid dem...
Tariff Structures and Trade Agreements
When the US imposed a 25% tariff on steel imports in 2018, the average price of hot-rolled coil steel rose **38%** within six months—demonstrating how...
US Trade Deficit Drivers and Trends
The US trade deficit reached **$773 billion** in 2023—a number that dominates headlines but often gets misinterpreted. Understanding what drives this ...
Balance of Payments and Current Account Basics
Every dollar that crosses the US border gets recorded somewhere. When Americans buy German cars, Chinese electronics, or Mexican produce, those transa...
Inflationary vs. Deflationary Regimes
## Understanding Inflation Regimes Inflation represents one of the most important macroeconomic variables for investors. The level and trajectory of ...
Secular Bull and Bear Market Definitions
## The Two Timeframes of Market Trends Investors often hear about bull and bear markets, but not all market trends operate on the same timeframe. Und...
Recession Indicators Investors Monitor
## Why Recession Indicators Matter Recessions are inevitable parts of the business cycle, but their timing and severity remain difficult to predict. ...
Business Cycle Stages and Market Behavior
## Understanding the Business Cycle The business cycle represents the natural rhythm of economic activity, alternating between periods of growth and ...
Interplay Between Fiscal and Monetary Policy
Fiscal policy (government spending and taxes) and monetary policy (interest rates and Fed balance sheet) operate through different channels but ultima...
Fiscal Multipliers and Output Gaps
When the government spends an additional dollar, how much does GDP increase? The answer depends on the **fiscal multiplier**—the ratio of GDP change t...
Glossary: Fiscal Policy Terms
This glossary covers essential fiscal policy terminology. Terms are organized alphabetically for quick reference. ## A **Appropriations** - Congress...
Debt Ceiling Mechanics and Contingency Plans
The debt ceiling is a legal limit on how much the federal government can borrow. Unlike most countries, the US requires Congressional action to raise ...
Treasury Issuance Schedules and Auctions
The Treasury Department issues approximately **$23 trillion** in securities annually—mostly refinancing maturing debt, plus new issuance to fund defic...
Budget Deficits, Surpluses, and Debt-to-GDP
Three fiscal metrics dominate policy debates, yet many investors conflate them: the **deficit** (annual flow), the **debt** (cumulative stock), and **...
Discretionary Spending vs. Automatic Stabilizers
Fiscal policy operates through two distinct channels that respond to economic conditions on different timelines. **Automatic stabilizers** activate im...
Federal Budget Components and Mandatory Spending
The federal budget operates under constraints that most investors don't fully appreciate. More than **70% of federal spending is mandatory**—legally r...
Glossary: Commodity and Energy Terms
## About This Glossary This reference covers essential terms for understanding commodity and energy markets. Terms are alphabetized for quick lookup....
Agricultural Commodities and Seasonality
## Why Agricultural Prices Follow Calendars Agricultural commodity prices move on seasonal rhythms that other commodities lack. Corn, soybeans, and w...
Glossary: Currency Market Terms
Currency markets use specialized terminology that can obscure straightforward concepts. This glossary defines the essential terms you'll encounter whe...
Reporting FX Gains and Losses for US Taxes
Foreign currency gains and losses receive special tax treatment under the Internal Revenue Code. The default rule under Section 988 treats most forex ...
Cryptoassets vs. Traditional Currency Markets
The global foreign exchange market trades approximately **$7.5 trillion daily** through a network of banks, central banks, and institutional investors...
Using Options for Tail-Risk Hedges
Forward contracts lock in an exchange rate with certainty—but certainty cuts both ways. When your €10 million receivable is hedged at EUR/USD 1.0800 a...
Corporate FX Risk Management
Companies with international operations face currency risk that directly affects cash flows, reported earnings, and competitive position. A US manufac...
Cross-Currency Basis Swaps
## What Are Cross-Currency Basis Swaps? A cross-currency basis swap is an agreement between two parties to exchange principal and interest payments i...
Carry Trade Mechanics and Risks
## What Is a Carry Trade? A carry trade involves borrowing in a low-interest-rate currency and investing the proceeds in a higher-interest-rate curre...
Balance of Payments Impact on FX
## The Balance of Payments Framework The balance of payments (BOP) records all economic transactions between a country and the rest of the world. By ...
Political Risk and Currency Moves
## How Politics Moves Currencies Currency markets respond to political events through their impact on expected economic policy, capital flows, and ri...
Emerging Market Currency Risk
## Why EM Currencies Behave Differently Emerging market currencies operate under fundamentally different conditions than G10 currencies like the US d...
Macro Drivers of USD Strength or Weakness
## Why the Dollar Moves The US dollar is the world's dominant reserve currency, held by central banks globally and used in most international trade i...
Measuring Trade-Weighted Exchange Rates
## Why Trade-Weighted Indexes Matter Bilateral exchange rates (EUR/USD, USD/JPY) tell you about one currency relationship. But when assessing a curre...
Currency ETFs and ETNs
## Overview of Currency ETPs Exchange-traded products (ETPs) provide retail investors access to currency markets without opening a forex account or t...
Hedging Foreign Stock Positions
## Why Currency Exposure Matters When US investors buy foreign stocks, they take on two distinct risks: equity price risk and currency risk. A Europe...
Central Bank Intervention in FX Markets
## What Is FX Intervention? Central bank intervention occurs when monetary authorities buy or sell currencies to influence exchange rates. Unlike nor...
Using Currency Futures and Options
**Exchange-traded currency derivatives provide standardized, centrally cleared exposure to FX markets.** Unlike OTC forwards negotiated bilaterally, C...
Interest Rate Differentials and Carry
**Interest rate differentials are the gravitational force of currency markets.** They determine forward points, drive carry trade flows, and explain w...
Dollar Index Composition and Signals
**The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) measures the dollar against a basket of six major currencies—but the basket is heavily skewed toward Europe.** The euro ...
How Exchange Rates Are Quoted
**Currency quotations follow strict conventions that determine who pays what.** Misunderstanding these conventions leads to costly errors—buying when ...
Spot vs. Forward FX Markets
**The FX market splits into two distinct segments: spot for immediate delivery and forwards for future delivery at locked-in prices.** Understanding t...
Glossary: Monetary Policy Terms
This glossary defines the essential terms you'll encounter when following Federal Reserve communications and monetary policy developments. Terms are a...
Monitoring Fed-Speak and Meeting Minutes
**The phrase "a few participants" in September 2023 FOMC minutes signaled emerging support for rate cuts—three months before the December dot plot con...
Policy Mistakes and Historical Lessons
**The Fed's 2021-2022 "transitory" inflation misjudgment forced the most aggressive hiking cycle since 1980, crushing both bonds and stocks simultaneo...
Monetary Policy Transmission to Credit Markets
**When the Fed hiked rates by 525 basis points between 2022 and 2023, high-yield credit spreads widened from 310 bps to 600 bps, and bank lending stan...
Impact of Policy on the US Dollar
**The 2022 Fed hiking cycle drove the U.S. Dollar Index from 95 to 114—a 20% appreciation in nine months.** That move crushed international equity ret...
Understanding SEP and Economic Projections
**The Fed's dot plot moved markets by over $1 trillion in a single afternoon.** In December 2023, the median dot shifted from projecting **50 bps** of...
Measuring Market-Implied Policy Expectations
**Fed funds futures accurately predicted the direction of 47 of the last 50 rate decisions—but the magnitude and timing of changes often surprised mar...
Federal Reserve Bank Structure and Voting Rotation
**The Federal Reserve isn't a single institution—it's a system of 12 regional banks plus a central Board of Governors.** Only 12 people vote on each i...
Global Central Bank Coordination
**When global dollar funding markets seized in March 2020, the Federal Reserve extended $450 billion in swap lines to foreign central banks within thr...
How Policy Moves Impact Yield Curves
**When the Fed hikes rates, short-term Treasury yields respond directly—but long-term yields often lag or move less.** This asymmetry creates the curv...
Emergency Lending Powers: Section 13(3)
**The Fed deployed $2.3 trillion in emergency lending capacity within weeks of the COVID-19 shock.** That speed—and the scale—reflected lessons learne...
Standing Overnight Repo and Reverse Repo Facilities
**ON RRP usage peaked at $2.55 trillion in December 2022—absorbing excess cash that otherwise would have pushed short-term rates below the Fed's targe...
Role of the Discount Window
**During the March 2023 banking stress, discount window borrowing surged from near zero to $152.9 billion in a single week.** That spike—the largest s...
Federal Reserve Communication Strategy
**A single word change in a Fed statement can move trillions of dollars.** When the January 2019 statement replaced "some further gradual increases" w...
Forward Guidance and Dot Plots
**The dot plot shifted expectations for 2024 rate cuts from six to three in a single March meeting.** That revision triggered a **40+ basis point** mo...
Balance Sheet Normalization Roadmaps
After expanding its balance sheet to **$9 trillion** during the pandemic, the Federal Reserve is working to shrink it back to a sustainable level. Thi...
Quantitative Easing vs. Tightening
When interest rates hit zero, the Fed cannot cut further using conventional tools. **Quantitative easing (QE)**—large-scale asset purchases—became the...
Open Market Operations and Repo Facilities
The FOMC announces a target range for the federal funds rate, but the market determines the actual rate. To keep the effective fed funds rate (EFFR) w...
How the FOMC Sets the Fed Funds Target
Eight times per year, 12 individuals gather in Washington to set the benchmark interest rate that influences everything from mortgage rates to stock v...
Federal Reserve Dual Mandate Explained
The Federal Reserve operates under a dual mandate from Congress: **maximum employment** and **price stability**. These two objectives drive every inte...
Glossary: US Economic Indicator Terms
This glossary provides concise definitions of essential terms for interpreting US economic indicators and data releases. ## A **Annualized rate:** A...
Building a Macro Dashboard Spreadsheet
## Why Build a Macro Dashboard Tracking economic indicators requires a systematic approach. A well-designed dashboard helps you: - Monitor data as i...
Regional Fed Surveys (Empire, Philly, etc.)
## What Regional Fed Surveys Measure Five Federal Reserve banks conduct monthly surveys of businesses in their districts, providing early reads on ma...
Financial Conditions Indexes
## What Financial Conditions Measure Financial conditions indexes (FCIs) aggregate multiple market-based indicators into a single number that capture...
Corporate Earnings as Macro Data
## Why Earnings Are Macro Data Corporate earnings represent the profitability of the business sector—approximately **\ trillion annually** for S&P 50...
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
## What Industrial Production Measures The Federal Reserve's Industrial Production Index tracks output in the manufacturing, mining, and utility sect...
Inventory-to-Sales Ratios
## What Inventory Ratios Measure The inventory-to-sales ratio measures how many months of sales are held in inventory at the current sales pace. It c...
Durable Goods Orders and Capex Signals
## What Durable Goods Orders Measure The Census Bureau's Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders tracks ord...
Existing vs. New Home Sales Indicators
## Two Measures of Housing Demand Home sales data comes from two separate sources measuring different market segments: **Existing home sales:** Publ...
Housing Starts, Permits, and Builder Confidence
## Why Housing Data Matters for Macro Residential investment represents only about **4-5% of GDP**, but housing is one of the most interest-rate-sens...
Retail Sales and Control Group Analysis
## What Retail Sales Measures The Census Bureau's Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey captures sales at retail and food services establishments—appro...
Consumer Confidence and Sentiment Surveys
## Why Consumer Attitudes Matter Consumer spending represents approximately **70% of US GDP**. Understanding how consumers feel about economic condit...
ISM Services and Composite Measures
## Why Services PMI Matters More Than Manufacturing The US economy is approximately **70% services**. While manufacturing PMI gets significant attent...
PMI and ISM Manufacturing Index
## What PMI Data Measures The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) captures business conditions through surveys of purchasing managers—the executives resp...
Jobless Claims as a Weekly Signal
## The Most Timely Labor Market Indicator While the monthly employment report provides the comprehensive labor market picture, weekly jobless claims ...
Unemployment Rate, Participation, and Wage Growth
## Why the Headline Unemployment Rate Is Not Enough The unemployment rate (U-3) captures the percentage of the labor force actively seeking work but ...
Employment Reports: Nonfarm Payrolls and Household Survey
## Two Surveys, Different Pictures The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases the Employment Situation report on the first Friday of each month at...
Inflation Metrics: CPI, Core CPI, and PCE
## Why Multiple Inflation Measures Exist Inflation measures the rate at which prices rise across the economy. But there is no single perfect measure—...
Understanding GDP Releases and Revisions
## What GDP Releases Tell Investors Gross Domestic Product measures the total value of goods and services produced in the US economy. The Bureau of E...
Leading vs. Lagging vs. Coincident Indicators
Economic indicators don't all tell you the same thing at the same time. Some signal where the economy is heading **before it arrives**, others confirm...
Glossary: Market Cycle Terminology
## About This Glossary This reference guide defines essential terms used in market cycle analysis and regime-based investing. Terms are organized int...
When to Hold Cash or Defensive Assets
## The Case for Defensive Positioning Every investor eventually faces the question: should I reduce risk and hold more cash or defensive assets? The ...
Yield Curve Inversions and Timing Lags
## Why the Yield Curve Matters The yield curve plots interest rates across different maturities for US Treasury securities. Under normal conditions, ...
Using Risk-On/Risk-Off Dashboards
## What Risk-On and Risk-Off Really Mean Financial markets constantly shift between two broad behavioral states: risk-on and risk-off. In risk-on env...
Lessons from Historical Crashes
**Market crashes share common patterns even when their causes differ.** Portfolio insurance, dot-com speculation, mortgage leverage, and a global pand...
Sentiment Indicators and Positioning Data
**Crowd psychology moves markets at extremes.** When everyone is bullish, who is left to buy? When pessimism reaches a crescendo, selling pressure exh...
Monitoring Market Breadth and Internals
**Price indexes tell you where the market went; breadth tells you how it got there.** A market that rises on broad participation differs fundamentally...
Seasonality Patterns in US Markets
## What Seasonality Means for Markets Seasonality refers to recurring patterns in market returns that correspond to specific calendar periods. Unlike...
Investing via Futures, ETFs, and Stocks
## Ways to Access Commodities Investors seeking commodity exposure have three main paths: trading futures contracts directly, buying commodity-focuse...
Regulatory Environment for US Commodities
## Overview of US Commodity Regulation US commodity markets operate under a multi-layered regulatory framework. The Commodity Futures Trading Commiss...
Geopolitical Risks in Energy Markets
## Why Geopolitics Matters for Energy Energy markets are uniquely sensitive to geopolitical events. Oil and natural gas supply chains span continents...
Carbon Markets and Renewable Energy Credits
## What Carbon Markets Do Carbon markets put a price on greenhouse gas emissions. By making emissions costly, these markets create financial incentiv...
Hedging Programs for Producers and Consumers
Companies exposed to commodity price risk—whether as producers or consumers—use hedging programs to stabilize cash flows and protect margins. Airlines...
Storage Costs and Convenience Yield
Commodity futures prices don't exist in isolation from physical market realities. The relationship between spot and futures prices follows predictable...
Contango vs. Backwardation Explained
The shape of the futures curve determines whether rolling futures contracts generates gains or losses. This distinction matters enormously for commodi...
Commodity Index Construction
Commodity indexes provide benchmarks for the asset class and serve as the basis for billions of dollars in ETFs, mutual funds, and structured products...
Livestock and Soft Commodities Basics
Livestock and soft commodities represent distinct segments of the commodities market, each with unique supply cycles, weather dependencies, and geogra...
Copper as an Economic Indicator
## Why Copper Gets a PhD Traders call copper "Dr. Copper" because its price movements often diagnose the health of the global economy before official...
Metals Markets: Precious vs. Industrial
## Two Different Markets, Two Different Stories Metals markets divide into two distinct categories: **precious metals** (gold, silver, platinum, pall...
Electricity Markets and Regional Differences
## Why Electricity Markets Are Different Electricity cannot be stored economically at scale. What gets generated must be consumed instantly. This phy...
Natural Gas Pricing Hubs and Seasonality
## Why Natural Gas Pricing Differs by Location Natural gas prices vary by **where you measure them**. Unlike oil (which ships globally in tankers), n...
Crack Spreads and Refining Margins
**Refiners don't care about the absolute price of oil.** They care about the difference between what they pay for crude and what they receive for gaso...
Inventory Reports (EIA, API) and Price Impact
**Every Wednesday at 10:30 AM Eastern, oil prices move.** That's when the US Energy Information Administration releases its weekly petroleum status re...
OPEC+ Policy and US Shale Response
**Global oil prices are set by a tug-of-war between two production systems.** On one side: OPEC+ (a coalition of oil-exporting nations) that coordinat...
Energy Supply Chain: From Wellhead to Pump
**A barrel of oil travels thousands of miles and changes hands multiple times before becoming the gasoline in your tank.** The energy supply chain div...
Oil Market Structure: Brent vs. WTI
**Crude oil isn't a single commodity.** There are dozens of crude grades worldwide, each with different characteristics and regional pricing. For inve...