Spot vs. Forward FX Markets

The FX market splits into two distinct segments: spot for immediate delivery and forwards for future delivery at locked-in prices. Understanding this distinction is essential for anyone managing currency exposure. The Bank for International Settlements reports daily FX turnover of $7.5 trillion, with spot transactions comprising $2.1 trillion and outright forwards $1.1 trillion (BIS Triennial Survey, 2022). The point is: whether you're hedging receivables, managing international investments, or speculating on rate differentials, you need to know which market serves your timeline.

Spot Market Mechanics

The spot market provides immediate currency exchange. "Immediate" in FX means T+2 settlement—trade today, settle in two business days. This convention allows time for payment instructions to clear through correspondent banks.

Key characteristics:

• Settlement: T+2 for most pairs (T+1 for USD/CAD, USD/MXN)
• Quotation: Current market rate reflecting real-time supply and demand
• Typical spreads: 1-3 pips for major pairs (EUR/USD, USD/JPY)
• Minimum trade size: Typically $1 million interbank, smaller in retail

Example: On Monday, December 16, you buy EUR 1,000,000 at spot rate 1.0850. You pay USD 1,085,000. Settlement occurs Wednesday, December 18—euros arrive in your Frankfurt account, dollars leave your New York account.

The spot rate reflects current market equilibrium. It moves continuously during trading hours based on order flow, economic data, and central bank expectations.

Forward Market Mechanics

The forward market locks in an exchange rate for future settlement—anywhere from one week to several years. Unlike spot, forward rates aren't directly traded; they're derived from spot rates adjusted by the interest rate differential between two currencies.

Settlement dates:

Why forwards exist: They eliminate currency uncertainty for future transactions. A U.S. importer owing EUR 5 million in 90 days doesn't need to guess where EUR/USD will trade—they lock the rate today.

Forward Points: The Premium or Discount

Forward rates differ from spot rates by forward points, expressed in pips. Forward points reflect the interest rate differential between the two currencies over the forward period.

The relationship:

Forward Rate = Spot Rate + Forward Points

Forward points can be positive (forward premium) or negative (forward discount):

• Premium: Forward rate > Spot rate (base currency has lower interest rate)
• Discount: Forward rate < Spot rate (base currency has higher interest rate)

Why this matters: The currency with the higher interest rate trades at a forward discount. This prevents risk-free arbitrage—you can't simply borrow in a low-rate currency, invest in a high-rate currency, and lock in the exchange rate to capture the spread.

Covered Interest Parity: The Pricing Formula

Covered interest parity (CIP) is the arbitrage relationship that determines forward points. It states that the forward discount or premium exactly offsets the interest rate differential.

The formula:

Forward Rate = Spot Rate × [(1 + r_quote × T) / (1 + r_base × T)]

Where:

• r_quote = Interest rate of quote currency (annualized)
• r_base = Interest rate of base currency (annualized)
• T = Time to settlement (in years)

Practical approximation for forward points:

Forward Points = Spot × (r_quote - r_base) × T

This approximation works well for periods under one year.

Worked Example: EUR/USD 3-Month Forward

Given data:

• Spot EUR/USD: 1.0850
• USD 3-month SOFR: 5.25% (annualized)
• EUR 3-month EURIBOR: 3.90% (annualized)
• Time: 3 months = 0.25 years

Step 1: Calculate the interest rate differential

Rate differential = USD rate - EUR rate = 5.25% - 3.90% = 1.35%

Step 2: Calculate forward points (approximate method)

Forward Points = 1.0850 × (0.0525 - 0.0390) × 0.25 Forward Points = 1.0850 × 0.0135 × 0.25 Forward Points = 0.0037 (or approximately -37 pips as discount)

Note: EUR has the lower rate, so EUR trades at a forward discount against USD.

Step 3: Calculate the 3-month forward rate

Forward Rate = 1.0850 - 0.0037 = 1.0813

Step 4: Verify with exact formula

Forward Rate = 1.0850 × [(1 + 0.0525 × 0.25) / (1 + 0.0390 × 0.25)] Forward Rate = 1.0850 × [1.013125 / 1.00975] Forward Rate = 1.0850 × 1.00334 Forward Rate = 1.0886

Wait—that gives a forward premium, not a discount. The issue is quotation convention.

Correcting for quotation: In EUR/USD, EUR is the base currency. Since EUR has the lower rate, you receive fewer USD per EUR in the forward (the EUR is worth less forward than spot). The exact calculation:

Forward Rate = 1.0850 × [(1 + 0.0390 × 0.25) / (1 + 0.0525 × 0.25)] Forward Rate = 1.0850 × [1.00975 / 1.013125] Forward Rate = 1.0850 × 0.99667 Forward Rate = 1.0814

The 3-month forward is approximately 1.0814, representing a 36-pip discount from spot.

Reading Forward Points in Practice

Dealers quote forward points relative to the spot rate. A typical quote might show:

Interpretation: To buy EUR forward (at the ask), take spot ask (1.0852) and subtract 35 pips = 1.0817. To sell EUR forward (at the bid), take spot bid (1.0848) and subtract 38 pips = 1.0810.

The point is: forward points are quoted as adjustments to spot. Negative points mean subtracting from spot; positive points mean adding.

When to Use Spot vs. Forward

Use spot when:

• You need currency immediately (within T+2)
• You're taking a speculative view on current rates
• Transaction timing is uncertain

Use forwards when:

• You have known future cash flows (receivables, payables)
• You want to lock in budgeted exchange rates
• You need to hedge specific future transactions

The durable lesson: Spot is for execution; forwards are for planning. A company with EUR 10 million receivable in 90 days uses the forward market to eliminate exchange rate uncertainty from their P&L.

Common Pitfalls

Pitfall 1: Ignoring the forward discount when comparing investments

A EUR deposit yielding 3.90% looks worse than a USD deposit at 5.25%. But if you're a EUR-based investor, the forward points mostly offset the yield advantage. You can't capture the rate differential risk-free.

Pitfall 2: Confusing forward rate with expected future spot rate

The 3-month forward of 1.0814 is not a prediction that EUR/USD will trade at 1.0814 in three months. It's today's contractual price for future delivery, determined by interest rate arbitrage.

Pitfall 3: Rolling forwards without tracking costs

Each roll incurs bid-ask spread costs. Rolling a 1-month forward twelve times costs more than a single 1-year forward.

Checklist: Spot vs. Forward Decision

Essential (before any FX transaction)

• Identify settlement date requirement (immediate vs. known future date)
• Check current spot rate and relevant forward points
• Calculate all-in forward rate for your tenor
• Compare forward hedge cost vs. staying unhedged

High-Impact (for hedging programs)

• Document hedge ratios (percentage of exposure covered)
• Set rolling schedule for maturing forwards
• Track cumulative bid-ask spread costs from rolls
• Monitor interest rate differentials for significant shifts

Your Next Step

If you have foreign currency exposure—international investments, overseas receivables, or import obligations—calculate the current forward points for your currency pair. Compare the forward rate to spot to understand what you're "paying" or "receiving" to lock in certainty.

The calculation:

1. Find spot rate (Bloomberg, Reuters, or broker platform)
2. Obtain relevant short-term rates for both currencies (SOFR, EURIBOR, etc.)
3. Apply the forward points formula for your tenor
4. Determine if hedging makes sense for your risk tolerance and budget

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Related: How Exchange Rates Are Quoted | Interest Rate Differentials and Carry | Using Currency Futures and Options

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Sources: Bank for International Settlements (2022). Triennial Central Bank Survey of FX and OTC Derivatives Markets. | CME Group (2024). FX Futures Contract Specifications.