Quantitative Easing vs. Tightening

When interest rates hit zero, the Fed cannot cut further using conventional tools. Quantitative easing (QE)—large-scale asset purchases—became the primary unconventional policy response during the 2008 financial crisis, the 2020 pandemic, and their aftermaths. The reverse process, quantitative tightening (QT), shrinks the balance sheet by letting securities mature without reinvestment. These programs move long-term rates, affect risk asset prices, and have reshaped the Fed's role in financial markets.

What Quantitative Easing Is

Quantitative easing is the Fed buying large quantities of Treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) from the market. The Fed pays by creating reserve balances electronically—expanding its balance sheet.

The mechanics:

1. The Fed announces a purchase program (e.g., "$120 billion per month")
2. The New York Fed's trading desk buys Treasuries and MBS from primary dealers
3. Dealers receive cash (reserve balances); the Fed receives securities
4. Total reserves in the banking system increase; the Fed's balance sheet expands

What the Fed buys:

• Treasury securities across maturities (bills, notes, bonds)
• Agency MBS (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Ginnie Mae guaranteed)

Scale of past programs:

How QE Affects Markets: Transmission Channels

QE works through several channels:

1. Lowers long-term interest rates When the Fed buys 10-year Treasuries, it increases demand and pushes prices up (yields down). Research suggests QE reduced 10-year Treasury yields by 100-150 basis points during peak programs (Gagnon et al., 2011).

2. Portfolio rebalancing effect When the Fed removes Treasuries and MBS from the market, investors who sold those securities must find alternatives. They shift into corporate bonds, equities, and other risk assets—pushing those prices higher and yields lower.

3. Signaling effect Large-scale purchases signal the Fed is committed to easy policy for an extended period. This reinforces forward guidance that rates will stay low.

4. Mortgage rate impact MBS purchases directly support mortgage markets. During COVID QE, 30-year mortgage rates fell from 3.7% to 2.7%—a 100 bp decline in months. Lower mortgage rates boost housing activity and consumer spending.

The point is: QE is not just about lowering rates. It compresses risk premiums across asset classes.

What Quantitative Tightening Is

Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. The Fed shrinks its balance sheet by allowing securities to mature without reinvesting the proceeds.

The mechanics:

1. The Fed announces runoff caps (e.g., "$60 billion Treasuries, $35 billion MBS monthly")
2. When Treasuries mature, the Treasury repays the Fed; the Fed does not buy new ones
3. MBS prepay as homeowners refinance or sell; the Fed does not reinvest
4. Total reserves decline; the balance sheet contracts

Why "passive" QT: The Fed lets securities roll off rather than actively selling. Active sales would put downward pressure on bond prices and risk market disruption. Passive runoff is slower and more predictable.

QT in practice: The Fed began QT in June 2022 at $47.5 billion monthly, accelerating to $95 billion monthly by September 2022 ($60 billion Treasuries + $35 billion MBS). As of late 2024, the Fed has reduced its balance sheet from a peak of $9.0 trillion to approximately $7.0 trillion.

QE vs. QT Comparison Table

Balance Sheet Size: Historical Context

The Fed's balance sheet tells the story of modern monetary policy:

The durable lesson: The balance sheet never returned to pre-2008 levels. The Fed now operates in an "ample reserves" regime where the balance sheet remains permanently larger than pre-crisis.

Market Impacts: What Happens During QE and QT

During QE:

• Treasury yields fall (especially long-term)
• Credit spreads compress (investors reach for yield)
• Stock prices rise (lower discount rates, portfolio rebalancing)
• Mortgage rates decline sharply
• Dollar may weaken (more dollars in circulation)
• Financial conditions ease

During QT:

• Treasury yields face upward pressure
• Credit spreads may widen
• Stock prices face headwinds (higher discount rates)
• Mortgage rates rise
• Dollar may strengthen
• Financial conditions tighten

The asymmetry: QE effects are larger and faster than QT effects. Buying $100 billion in a month is aggressive. Letting $100 billion roll off over time is gradual. Markets absorb QT more smoothly than they respond to QE announcements.

Impact on Yields and Risk Assets

10-Year Treasury Impact: Research estimates suggest:

• QE1-QE3 reduced 10-year yields by 100-150 bps cumulatively
• COVID QE pushed yields below 0.6% at the trough
• QT contributes an estimated 5-10 bps per $100 billion runoff

Mortgage Rate Impact:

• COVID QE: 30-year mortgage rates fell from 3.7% to 2.7%
• QT + rate hikes: 30-year rates rose from 3.0% to 7.8% (2022-2023)
• The Fed's MBS holdings influence the spread between Treasuries and mortgages

Equity Market Impact:

• S&P 500 rose 68% from March 2020 low during QE
• 2022 decline of -19% coincided with QT launch and rate hikes
• Correlation is not causation—many factors drive equities—but liquidity conditions matter

Timeline: QE and QT History

2008-2014: The QE Era

• November 2008: QE1 announced ($600 billion MBS, $100 billion agency debt)
• November 2010: QE2 announced ($600 billion Treasuries)
• September 2012: QE3 announced (open-ended purchases)
• October 2014: QE3 ends; balance sheet at $4.5 trillion

2017-2019: First QT Attempt

• October 2017: QT begins at $10 billion/month, scaling to $50 billion/month
• September 2019: Repo market stress; QT ends with balance sheet at $3.8 trillion
• Lesson learned: Reserve scarcity can emerge suddenly

2020-2022: COVID QE

• March 2020: Emergency QE at unlimited pace
• Stabilizes at $120 billion/month (80 Treasuries + $40 MBS)
• March 2022: QE ends; balance sheet at $9.0 trillion

2022-Present: Current QT

• June 2022: QT begins at $47.5 billion/month
• September 2022: QT accelerates to $95 billion/month
• May 2024: QT pace slowed to $60 billion/month
• Target: Return to "ample reserves" (~$6-6.5 trillion estimated)

Monitoring Checklist

Weekly checks

• Review Fed balance sheet data (H.4.1 release, Thursdays)
• Note total securities holdings (Treasuries + MBS)
• Track reserve balances
• Monitor ON RRP usage (indicates excess reserves)

Monthly assessment

• Calculate month-over-month balance sheet change
• Compare actual runoff to announced caps
• Watch for Fed communications about pace adjustments
• Check repo market conditions for stress signals

Key thresholds to watch

• Reserve balances approaching $2.5-3.0 trillion (potential scarcity)
• Elevated repo rate volatility
• Fed statements about "ample reserves" assessments
• Any announced changes to runoff caps

Common Questions

Why not just sell securities outright? Active selling would pressure prices more than passive runoff. The Fed prefers predictable, gradual tightening to minimize market disruption.

When will QT end? The Fed has not announced a specific endpoint. It will slow or stop when reserves approach levels consistent with "ample" reserves—likely $2.5-3.0 trillion in reserves, implying a balance sheet around $6-6.5 trillion.

Can QE and rate hikes happen simultaneously? Theoretically yes, but it would send mixed signals. In practice, the Fed completes QE before hiking and completes the hiking cycle before considering QE again.

Your Next Step

Check the Fed's H.4.1 release (published every Thursday at 4:30 PM Eastern). Note total securities held outright, split between Treasuries and MBS. Compare to the previous month. If Treasuries declined by less than $60 billion, check for Fed purchases or maturity schedule variations. This simple tracking exercise builds intuition for how the balance sheet evolves and what pace of tightening markets are absorbing.

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Related: Balance Sheet Normalization Roadmaps | Open Market Operations and Repo Facilities | How Policy Moves Impact Yield Curves