Markets · Policy · Structure
Capital Writ
Macro currents, policy shifts, and the structural forces that shape markets. Calibrated analysis for the long view.
market overview
Prediction Markets Are Now Financial Infrastructure
How a 19th-century mechanism got rebuilt with 21st-century plumbing — and why the volume charts matter less than the feedback loops. A look at Kalshi'...
2026-03-29By Equicurious
market overview
The Basis Trade Time Bomb
Inside the $1 trillion arbitrage that nearly broke the Treasury market in March 2020 — and why the same trade, rebuilt even larger, sits at the founda...
2026-03-10By Equicurious