Transparency and Data Sources for Fiscal Analysis

The United States publishes more fiscal data than any other major economy. The Treasury Department releases daily cash position reports, monthly receipts and outlays, and real-time debt figures updated to the penny. The Congressional Budget Office publishes 10-year projections updated multiple times annually. Yet most investors never access these primary sources, relying instead on media summaries that often lack context or contain errors. The point is: knowing where to find authoritative fiscal data gives you an information edge when budget announcements move markets.

Key Data Sources: The Three Pillars

Congressional Budget Office (CBO) - cbo.gov

The CBO is Congress's nonpartisan scorekeeper for fiscal policy:

• Budget and Economic Outlook: Published each January/February with spring update
• Long-Term Budget Outlook: 30-year projections published annually (usually June)
• Cost Estimates: Official scores for every significant piece of legislation
• Historical Tables: Consistent time series back to 1962

Key metrics from CBO:

• Deficit projections (annual and 10-year cumulative)
• Debt-to-GDP forecasts
• Economic assumptions (GDP growth, unemployment, interest rates, inflation)
• Mandatory spending trajectories (Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid)

Department of the Treasury - fiscal.treasury.gov and treasurydirect.gov

The Treasury provides real-time and historical data on actual government finances:

• Daily Treasury Statement (DTS): Cash position, receipts, and outlays updated every business day
• Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS): Detailed revenue and spending by category (released ~8th business day)
• Debt to the Penny: Total public debt updated daily (currently $36.2 trillion as of late 2024)
• Treasury Auction Results: Bid-to-cover ratios, yields, foreign demand indicators

Key metrics from Treasury:

• Actual (not projected) receipts and outlays
• Cash balance and extraordinary measures status during debt ceiling periods
• Auction demand indicators (bid-to-cover, indirect bidder percentage)
• Interest rate paid on newly issued debt

Office of Management and Budget (OMB) - whitehouse.gov/omb

The OMB represents the executive branch's fiscal perspective:

• President's Budget: Annual request (first Monday in February)
• Mid-Session Review: Updated projections each summer (July)
• Historical Tables: Executive branch version of fiscal history back to 1789
• Analytical Perspectives: Detailed methodology and assumptions

Key distinction: CBO provides nonpartisan analysis independent of policy preferences; OMB reflects administration priorities and often more optimistic economic assumptions. Comparing the two reveals where assumptions diverge.

Data Source Comparison Table

How to Access Key Fiscal Data in Practice

Finding the current fiscal year deficit:

1. Go to fiscal.treasury.gov
2. Click "Reports" then "Monthly Treasury Statement"
3. Navigate to Table 1: "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and the Deficit"
4. The fiscal year-to-date deficit appears in the final column

Example (FY 2024 final): Through September 2024, the deficit was $1.83 trillion (6.4% of GDP).

Finding the debt-to-GDP ratio:

1. Go to cbo.gov
2. Search for "Budget and Economic Outlook"
3. Find "Historical Budget Data" supplemental Excel file
4. Debt held by the public as % of GDP is in the summary tables

Example: CBO projects debt-to-GDP rising from 99% (2024) to 116% (2034) under current law assumptions.

Finding Treasury auction results:

1. Go to treasurydirect.gov
2. Click "Auctions" in the navigation
3. Select recent auctions by security type (bills, notes, bonds, TIPS, FRNs)
4. Key metrics: high yield, bid-to-cover ratio, indirect bidder percentage

Example (10-year auction, November 2024):

• High yield: 4.347%
• Bid-to-cover ratio: 2.53x (indicates solid demand)
• Indirect bidders: 73.4% (primarily foreign central banks and institutions)

Worked Example: Interpreting a CBO Budget Update

Scenario: CBO releases its February 2025 Budget and Economic Outlook. You want to assess the fiscal trajectory and its implications for Treasury supply.

Step 1: Locate key projections in the summary tables

From CBO's report:

• FY 2025 deficit projection: $1.9 trillion (6.2% of GDP)
• 10-year cumulative deficit (2025-2034): $22 trillion
• Debt held by public in 2034: 118% of GDP
• Average interest rate on federal debt: 3.4% (rising from 2.9% in 2024)

Step 2: Compare to previous CBO projection

Prior CBO projection (May 2024):

• FY 2025 deficit: $1.8 trillion
• 10-year cumulative deficit: $20 trillion
• Debt-to-GDP in 2034: 116%

Change analysis: Deficit projection widened by $100 billion for FY 2025; 10-year cumulative worsened by $2 trillion; debt trajectory 2 percentage points higher.

Step 3: Identify the drivers of the change

CBO's "Changes in CBO's Baseline Projections" table typically breaks down:

• Higher interest rate assumptions: +$500 billion over 10 years
• Lower revenue estimates: +$400 billion over 10 years
• Higher mandatory spending (healthcare costs): +$300 billion over 10 years
• Enacted legislation: +$800 billion over 10 years

Step 4: Assess market implications

The durable lesson: Worsening fiscal projections increase expected Treasury supply. If the 10-year cumulative deficit rises by $2 trillion, that represents approximately $200 billion per year in additional securities the market must absorb, potentially creating upward pressure on yields.

Practical application: Monitor the Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement to see how the department plans to finance the higher borrowing needs (more bills vs. more long-dated securities).

Data Quality Considerations

Projection uncertainty is substantial:

CBO explicitly publishes uncertainty ranges acknowledging forecast limitations:

• Deficit in 2034: Central estimate $2.9 trillion, 95% confidence range $1.5-4.5 trillion
• Debt-to-GDP in 2034: Central estimate 118%, range 100-140%

Why this matters: A 40-percentage-point range on debt-to-GDP reflects genuine uncertainty about future economic growth, interest rates, and policy changes over a decade.

Key assumption sensitivities:

The point is: fiscal projections are not forecasts. They are scenarios based on current law and assumed economic conditions. Changes in assumptions can shift 10-year projections by trillions of dollars.

Data timing and revision patterns:

• Monthly Treasury Statements are preliminary for 1-2 months, then revised
• CBO projections assume current law (including scheduled tax expirations, sequester rules)
• OMB projections assume administration policy proposals are enacted (often unrealistic)
• GDP data revises substantially (initial to final estimate can shift by 1+ percentage point)
• Trust fund projections (Social Security, Medicare) update annually with new assumptions

Common Pitfalls in Fiscal Data Analysis

Pitfall 1: Confusing gross debt with debt held by the public

• Gross federal debt: $36.2 trillion (includes intragovernmental holdings like Social Security trust fund)
• Debt held by the public: $28.9 trillion (what the government owes to external holders)

For market analysis, debt held by the public is the relevant figure because it represents securities that must find private buyers. Gross debt includes accounting entries between government accounts.

Pitfall 2: Ignoring the baseline assumption

CBO "baseline" projections assume:

• Current law continues exactly (tax cuts expire on schedule)
• Discretionary spending grows with inflation only
• No new legislation is enacted

Reality: Tax cuts are often extended, spending often exceeds caps, and new legislation passes regularly. If the 2017 tax cuts are extended (as is politically likely), actual deficits will exceed baseline projections by approximately $4 trillion over 10 years.

Pitfall 3: Treating projections as precise predictions

CBO's 10-year projection in 2014 for 2024 debt-to-GDP was 79%. Actual 2024 result: 99%. The 20-percentage-point miss came from unpredicted legislation (2017 tax cuts, COVID spending) and economic surprises. Long-term projections indicate trajectory, not destination.

Pitfall 4: Cherry-picking time periods for comparison

Comparing FY 2020 deficit ($3.1 trillion, 15% of GDP) to FY 2015 ($439 billion, 2.4% of GDP) without noting COVID-19 emergency spending creates a misleading picture. Always contextualize unusual data points.

Data Crosswalk: Reconciling Different Sources

When CBO and OMB projections differ, the gap reflects:

Example: OMB's FY 2025 budget projected $16 trillion in 10-year deficits; CBO baseline showed $20 trillion. The $4 trillion gap came primarily from OMB assuming revenue-raising proposals would be enacted (they were not).

Key Publication Calendar

Checklist: Fiscal Data Research Workflow

Essential (evaluate these first)

• Start with CBO baseline for nonpartisan, legally-required projections
• Check the Monthly Treasury Statement for actual year-to-date receipts and outlays
• Distinguish debt held by public ($28.9T) from gross debt ($36.2T) in your analysis
• Note the date of projections you are using (fiscal data ages quickly with new legislation)

High-impact refinements

• Compare CBO baseline to OMB projections to identify assumption differences
• Check CBO's "Changes in Projections" table to identify what drove revisions
• Review assumption sensitivity tables for key variables (rates, growth, unemployment)
• Monitor Treasury auction bid-to-cover ratios for investor demand signals

For ongoing monitoring

• Subscribe to CBO email alerts for new publication notifications
• Bookmark Treasury's Daily Treasury Statement page for cash position during debt ceiling periods
• Use FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis) for historical time series and charting
• Set calendar reminders for major release dates (Budget Monday, CBO updates, QRA)

Your Next Step

Go to cbo.gov and download the most recent "Budget and Economic Outlook" PDF and the accompanying supplemental Excel tables. Find three numbers in the summary: (1) the current fiscal year deficit as a percentage of GDP, (2) projected debt held by the public in 10 years as a percentage of GDP, and (3) the assumed average interest rate on federal debt. These three figures provide the foundation for any fiscal analysis: where we are, where we're headed, and what the cost of debt service will be.

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Related: Congressional Budget Office Forecasts | Budget Deficits, Surpluses, and Debt-to-GDP | Investor Playbooks for Fiscal Announcements