fiscal policy and government finance
Educational articles in this subcategory.
Investor Playbooks for Fiscal Announcements
**Fiscal announcements move markets in predictable patterns.** When the Treasury announced larger-than-expected borrowing needs in August 2023 (an ad...
Transparency and Data Sources for Fiscal Analysis
**The United States publishes more fiscal data than any other major economy.** The Treasury Department releases daily cash position reports, monthly ...
Tracking Appropriations and Continuing Resolutions
**The federal government has operated under at least one continuing resolution in 47 of the past 48 fiscal years.** Since FY 1977, Congress has compl...
Fiscal Policy During Recessions vs. Expansions
**Fiscal policy operates differently across economic cycles.** During the 2008-2009 recession, the federal deficit expanded from **$459 billion (3.1%...
Entitlement Reform Debates
Mandatory spending programs—Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid—consume **63%** of the federal budget and are projected to reach **78%** by 2054 ...
Cost-Benefit Analysis of Major Programs
The Congressional Budget Office scores **300-400** pieces of legislation annually, estimating costs and effects over 10-year windows (CBO, 2024). Cos...
Public-Private Partnership Financing Models
Public-private partnerships (P3s) finance **$30-50 billion** in U.S. infrastructure projects annually (Congressional Budget Office, 2024). These arra...
State and Local Fiscal Health Indicators
State and local governments manage **$4.1 trillion** in combined annual budgets (Census Bureau, FY 2023). Their fiscal health directly affects munici...
How Infrastructure Bills Flow Through the Economy
Infrastructure legislation creates headlines when passed, but the economic impact unfolds over years, not months. The 2021 Infrastructure Investment a...
Tax Policy Changes and Investor Impact
Tax policy changes alter the after-tax returns on investments, corporate profitability, and the relative attractiveness of different asset classes. Th...
Sovereign Credit Ratings for the United States
The United States no longer holds the top credit rating from all major agencies. S&P downgraded the US from AAA to AA+ in 2011; Fitch followed in 2023...
Congressional Budget Office Forecasts
The Congressional Budget Office produces the official economic and budget projections that Congress uses for lawmaking. CBO forecasts shape fiscal pol...
Interplay Between Fiscal and Monetary Policy
Fiscal policy (government spending and taxes) and monetary policy (interest rates and Fed balance sheet) operate through different channels but ultima...
Fiscal Multipliers and Output Gaps
When the government spends an additional dollar, how much does GDP increase? The answer depends on the **fiscal multiplier**—the ratio of GDP change t...
Glossary: Fiscal Policy Terms
This glossary covers essential fiscal policy terminology. Terms are organized alphabetically for quick reference. ## A **Appropriations** - Congress...
Debt Ceiling Mechanics and Contingency Plans
The debt ceiling is a legal limit on how much the federal government can borrow. Unlike most countries, the US requires Congressional action to raise ...
Treasury Issuance Schedules and Auctions
The Treasury Department issues approximately **$23 trillion** in securities annually—mostly refinancing maturing debt, plus new issuance to fund defic...
Budget Deficits, Surpluses, and Debt-to-GDP
Three fiscal metrics dominate policy debates, yet many investors conflate them: the **deficit** (annual flow), the **debt** (cumulative stock), and **...
Discretionary Spending vs. Automatic Stabilizers
Fiscal policy operates through two distinct channels that respond to economic conditions on different timelines. **Automatic stabilizers** activate im...
Federal Budget Components and Mandatory Spending
The federal budget operates under constraints that most investors don't fully appreciate. More than **70% of federal spending is mandatory**—legally r...