building-a-risk-event-dashboard — geopolitics and risk events

A structured risk event dashboard reduces the likelihood of being surprised by developments that affect portfolio value. Research on institutional investor performance found that managers with systematic monitoring processes underperformed benchmarks by 1.2% less during geopolitical stress periods compared to those relying on ad-hoc information gathering (CFA Institute, 2021). The point is: systematic monitoring converts noise into signal before events become headlines.

Dashboard Purpose and Scope

A risk event dashboard serves three functions:

Early warning: Identify developing risks before they reach crisis stage
Severity assessment: Quantify event intensity using consistent metrics
Action trigger: Define thresholds that prompt specific responses

What a dashboard is not: A prediction system. You are not forecasting events; you are detecting escalation and assessing magnitude.

Key Event Categories

Organize monitoring around categories that map to distinct market transmission channels.

Event Category Framework

Category	Example Events	Primary Market Impact	Lead Indicators
Geopolitical Conflict	War, territorial disputes, military escalation	Energy prices, defense stocks, safe-haven demand	Troop movements, diplomatic statements, sanctions announcements
Trade Policy	Tariffs, export controls, trade agreement changes	Affected sector equities, FX, supply chain stocks	Trade representative statements, regulatory filings, WTO disputes
Monetary Policy	Central bank decisions, currency interventions	Rates, FX, duration-sensitive equities	Central bank communications, inflation data, employment data
Political Transition	Elections, regime change, constitutional crises	Country-specific equities, sovereign debt, FX	Polling data, legislative calendars, protest activity
Natural Disasters	Earthquakes, hurricanes, floods, pandemics	Insurance, affected region equities, commodities	Weather forecasts, seismic data, WHO/CDC reports
Cyber/Infrastructure	Major cyberattacks, grid failures, payment disruptions	Affected company equities, cybersecurity stocks	Threat intelligence, outage reports, government alerts
Regulatory	Antitrust actions, sector regulations, tax policy	Targeted company equities, sector indices	Legislative calendars, regulatory agency agendas, court filings

Indicator Selection

For each event category, select indicators that provide actionable signal with minimal noise.

Criteria for Good Indicators

Timely: Available before or concurrent with market reaction
Objective: Based on measurable data, not subjective assessment
Actionable: Changes in indicator suggest specific portfolio responses
Accessible: Available through free or affordable data sources

Indicator Selection by Category

Geopolitical Conflict:

Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR) - Fed Dallas
Oil implied volatility (OVX)
Gold price vs. 20-day moving average
Credit default swap spreads for affected sovereigns
Defense sector relative performance

Trade Policy:

Economic Policy Uncertainty Index - Trade Policy component
Container shipping rates (Baltic Dry Index)
Sector-specific tariff announcements
Trade balance data for key corridors

Monetary Policy:

Fed funds futures pricing
2-year/10-year yield spread
MOVE Index (Treasury volatility)
Real-time inflation expectations (TIPS breakevens)

Political Transition:

Prediction market probabilities (where legal/available)
Sovereign CDS spreads
Local currency volatility
Opinion polling aggregates

Natural Disasters:

Insurance catastrophe bond pricing
Commodity spot prices for affected products
Supply chain data (port congestion, freight rates)
CDC/WHO alert levels

Cyber/Infrastructure:

Cybersecurity ETF performance (CIBR, HACK)
Company-specific announcements
Government threat level indicators
Industry ISAC (Information Sharing and Analysis Center) alerts

Scoring System

Convert qualitative events into quantitative scores for consistent monitoring.

Three-Tier Scoring Framework

Score 1-3 (Green): Monitoring Mode

Event is on radar but not actively escalating
No immediate portfolio action required
Check status weekly

Score 4-6 (Yellow): Elevated Attention

Event is escalating or has uncertain trajectory
Review portfolio exposure to affected sectors/regions
Increase monitoring frequency to daily

Score 7-10 (Red): Active Response

Event is causing or likely to cause material market impact
Execute pre-defined portfolio adjustments
Daily or intra-day monitoring

Scoring Criteria by Factor

Factor	1-3 (Green)	4-6 (Yellow)	7-10 (Red)
Geographic scope	Single locality	Regional/multi-country	Global or major economy
Sector breadth	Single company	Single sector	Multiple sectors or systemic
Duration expectation	Days	Weeks to months	Months to years
Policy uncertainty	Policy response clear	Policy response unclear	Policy creating additional uncertainty
Market reaction	<1% index move	1-3% index move	>3% index move
VIX level	<20	20-30	>30
Media intensity	Minor coverage	Significant coverage	Dominant story

Composite Score Calculation:

Average the factor scores, weighted by relevance to your portfolio. For example, if your portfolio has heavy energy exposure, weight "sector breadth" higher for energy-related events.

Alert Threshold Configuration

Define specific thresholds that trigger notifications and action protocols.

Threshold Table

Indicator	Yellow Alert	Red Alert	Data Source
VIX Index	>25	>35	CBOE (free, delayed)
GPR Index	>120 (historical average ~100)	>150	Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
OVX (Oil volatility)	>40	>60	CBOE
2s10s Spread	<25 bps or >100 bps inversion	<0 bps (inverted) for >5 days	FRED
CDX IG Spread	>100 bps	>150 bps	Markit (subscription)
Gold % above 20-day MA	>3%	>5%	Yahoo Finance, Bloomberg
Baltic Dry Index	30-day change >50%	30-day change >100%	Baltic Exchange
Sovereign CDS (specific country)	>100 bps increase from baseline	>200 bps increase	Bloomberg, Reuters

Alert Configuration Example

VIX Alert Setup:

Source: CBOE website or data provider API
Check frequency: Daily at market close
Yellow threshold: Close >25
Red threshold: Close >35 OR single-day increase >5 points
Notification: Email + SMS for red alerts
Action protocol: Yellow = review exposures; Red = execute pre-defined hedge

Dashboard Template

Use this structure to build your monitoring dashboard:

Dashboard Layout

╔══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╗
║                   RISK EVENT DASHBOARD                            ║
║                   Last Updated: [DATE/TIME]                       ║
╠══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╣
║ OVERALL STATUS: [GREEN/YELLOW/RED]                                ║
╠══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╣
║                                                                   ║
║ VOLATILITY INDICATORS                                             ║
║ ┌─────────────┬─────────┬─────────┬────────┬────────┐            ║
║ │ Indicator   │ Current │ Δ 1-Day │ Status │ Thresh │            ║
║ ├─────────────┼─────────┼─────────┼────────┼────────┤            ║
║ │ VIX         │  18.2   │  +0.8   │ GREEN  │ Y>25   │            ║
║ │ MOVE        │  95.4   │  -2.1   │ GREEN  │ Y>120  │            ║
║ │ OVX         │  32.5   │  +1.2   │ GREEN  │ Y>40   │            ║
║ └─────────────┴─────────┴─────────┴────────┴────────┘            ║
║                                                                   ║
║ CREDIT/SPREAD INDICATORS                                          ║
║ ┌─────────────┬─────────┬─────────┬────────┬────────┐            ║
║ │ Indicator   │ Current │ Δ 1-Wk  │ Status │ Thresh │            ║
║ ├─────────────┼─────────┼─────────┼────────┼────────┤            ║
║ │ CDX IG      │  68 bps │  +5 bps │ GREEN  │ Y>100  │            ║
║ │ 2s10s Spread│  45 bps │  -8 bps │ GREEN  │ Y<25   │            ║
║ └─────────────┴─────────┴─────────┴────────┴────────┘            ║
║                                                                   ║
║ GEOPOLITICAL INDICATORS                                           ║
║ ┌─────────────┬─────────┬─────────┬────────┬────────┐            ║
║ │ Indicator   │ Current │ Δ 1-Mo  │ Status │ Thresh │            ║
║ ├─────────────┼─────────┼─────────┼────────┼────────┤            ║
║ │ GPR Index   │  108    │  +12    │ GREEN  │ Y>120  │            ║
║ │ Gold/Copper │  0.32   │  +0.02  │ GREEN  │ Y>0.45 │            ║
║ └─────────────┴─────────┴─────────┴────────┴────────┘            ║
║                                                                   ║
║ ACTIVE EVENTS (Score ≥4)                                          ║
║ ┌────────────────────────────────────────┬───────┬────────┐      ║
║ │ Event                                  │ Score │ Trend  │      ║
║ ├────────────────────────────────────────┼───────┼────────┤      ║
║ │ [No active events above threshold]     │   -   │   -    │      ║
║ └────────────────────────────────────────┴───────┴────────┘      ║
║                                                                   ║
║ WATCHLIST (Score 1-3)                                             ║
║ • [Event 1] - Score 2, next check: [date]                         ║
║ • [Event 2] - Score 3, next check: [date]                         ║
║                                                                   ║
╚══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╝

Dashboard Data Sources

Data Element	Free Source	Premium Source
VIX	CBOE website (15-min delay)	Bloomberg, Refinitiv
MOVE	ICE website	Bloomberg
GPR Index	Dallas Fed website	Direct download
Credit spreads	Limited free data	Bloomberg, Markit
Yield curve	FRED, Treasury.gov	Bloomberg
Gold/commodities	Yahoo Finance	Bloomberg, CME
Sovereign CDS	Limited	Bloomberg, Reuters

Maintenance Routine

A dashboard only works if data is current and thresholds remain relevant.

Daily Routine (5 minutes)

Update volatility indicators (VIX, MOVE, OVX)
Check for threshold breaches
Scan headlines for new events to add to watchlist
Note any indicator anomalies for investigation

Weekly Routine (15 minutes)

Update all indicators including less-frequent data (GPR, spreads)
Review and re-score active events
Add/remove events from watchlist based on developments
Check data source availability (confirm links work)

Monthly Routine (30 minutes)

Review threshold levels for appropriateness
Assess false positive rate (too many alerts?)
Assess false negative rate (missed events?)
Update indicator weights based on portfolio changes
Document any indicator substitutions needed

Quarterly Routine (1 hour)

Full review of event category coverage
Benchmark dashboard performance against actual events
Update data sources if better alternatives exist
Train backup personnel on dashboard operation
Archive historical dashboard readings for pattern analysis

Implementation Checklist

Phase 1: Setup (Week 1)

Select event categories relevant to portfolio
Identify 3-5 indicators per category
Locate free data sources for each indicator
Build dashboard template (spreadsheet or dashboard tool)
Set initial threshold levels based on historical ranges

Phase 2: Calibration (Weeks 2-4)

Populate dashboard daily for 2+ weeks
Note any indicators with excessive noise
Adjust thresholds if generating too many/few alerts
Add any missing event categories discovered during monitoring

Phase 3: Operationalize (Month 2+)

Establish daily/weekly/monthly routine
Configure automated data pulls where possible
Set up alert notifications (email, SMS)
Document action protocols for yellow/red alerts
Designate backup personnel for coverage

Related: Geopolitical Intelligence Sources to Monitor | Scenario Planning Workshops for Investors | Crisis Communication Playbooks

Sources: CFA Institute (2021). Manager Performance During Geopolitical Stress. | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (2024). Geopolitical Risk Index Methodology. | CBOE (2024). VIX Index Documentation.

Building a Risk Event Dashboard