market cycles and regimes
Educational articles in this subcategory.
Opportunistic Strategies Post-Recession
**Recessions create the conditions for outsized returns.** When unemployment peaks, credit spreads blow out, and equity valuations compress, the stage...
Commodities as Cycle Signals
## Why Commodities Signal Economic Cycles Commodities occupy a unique position in the economic system. Unlike financial assets that represent claims ...
Playbooks for Late-Cycle Investing
**Late-cycle investing requires a shift in priorities.** After years of expansion, the economy shows signs of strain: unemployment bottoms, inflation ...
Building Regime Models for Portfolios
## What Regime Models Aim to Accomplish Regime models attempt to identify the current market environment and adjust portfolio allocations accordingly...
Factor Leadership Across Market Cycles
## What Factors Are and Why They Rotate Factor investing organizes equity returns around systematic characteristics that explain why certain stocks o...
Credit Cycle Evolution and Signals
## The Credit Cycle Framework Credit cycles describe the recurring patterns of borrowing, lending, and default that shape economic activity and asset...
Volatility Regimes and VIX Thresholds
## What the VIX Measures and Why It Matters The CBOE Volatility Index, commonly known as the VIX, represents the market's expectation of 30-day forwa...
Liquidity Regimes and Financial Conditions
## The Role of Liquidity in Financial Markets Liquidity is the lifeblood of financial markets. It refers to the ease with which assets can be bought ...
Inflationary vs. Deflationary Regimes
## Understanding Inflation Regimes Inflation represents one of the most important macroeconomic variables for investors. The level and trajectory of ...
Secular Bull and Bear Market Definitions
## The Two Timeframes of Market Trends Investors often hear about bull and bear markets, but not all market trends operate on the same timeframe. Und...
Recession Indicators Investors Monitor
## Why Recession Indicators Matter Recessions are inevitable parts of the business cycle, but their timing and severity remain difficult to predict. ...
Business Cycle Stages and Market Behavior
## Understanding the Business Cycle The business cycle represents the natural rhythm of economic activity, alternating between periods of growth and ...
Glossary: Market Cycle Terminology
## About This Glossary This reference guide defines essential terms used in market cycle analysis and regime-based investing. Terms are organized int...
When to Hold Cash or Defensive Assets
## The Case for Defensive Positioning Every investor eventually faces the question: should I reduce risk and hold more cash or defensive assets? The ...
Yield Curve Inversions and Timing Lags
## Why the Yield Curve Matters The yield curve plots interest rates across different maturities for US Treasury securities. Under normal conditions, ...
Using Risk-On/Risk-Off Dashboards
## What Risk-On and Risk-Off Really Mean Financial markets constantly shift between two broad behavioral states: risk-on and risk-off. In risk-on env...
Lessons from Historical Crashes
**Market crashes share common patterns even when their causes differ.** Portfolio insurance, dot-com speculation, mortgage leverage, and a global pand...
Sentiment Indicators and Positioning Data
**Crowd psychology moves markets at extremes.** When everyone is bullish, who is left to buy? When pessimism reaches a crescendo, selling pressure exh...
Monitoring Market Breadth and Internals
**Price indexes tell you where the market went; breadth tells you how it got there.** A market that rises on broad participation differs fundamentally...
Seasonality Patterns in US Markets
## What Seasonality Means for Markets Seasonality refers to recurring patterns in market returns that correspond to specific calendar periods. Unlike...