Budget Deficits, Surpluses, and Debt-to-GDP

Three fiscal metrics dominate policy debates, yet many investors conflate them: the deficit (annual flow), the debt (cumulative stock), and debt-to-GDP (sustainability ratio). The US ran a deficit of approximately $1.8 trillion in FY2024, adding to total public debt of roughly $27 trillion (debt held by the public), producing a debt-to-GDP ratio of approximately 99%.

These numbers have different implications. A large deficit in one year during recession is normal. A rising debt-to-GDP ratio over decades signals potential sustainability concerns. Understanding the difference prevents overreaction to annual budget headlines while maintaining appropriate concern about long-term trajectories.

Definitions and Relationships

The Deficit (Annual Flow)

The deficit is the gap between federal outlays and revenues in a single fiscal year (October 1 to September 30).

Formula: Deficit = Outlays - Revenues

FY2024 figures:

• Outlays: ~$6.75 trillion
• Revenues: ~$4.92 trillion
• Deficit: ~$1.83 trillion

Key insight: Deficits add to debt. A balanced budget (deficit = $0) doesn't reduce debt—it just stops adding to it.

The Surplus (Rare)

A surplus occurs when revenues exceed outlays. The US last ran a surplus from FY1998-2001, totaling approximately $559 billion over four years.

Why surpluses are rare: Balanced-budget incentives are weak. Politicians gain from spending increases and tax cuts; neither party has strong incentives to run surpluses except during unusual circumstances (late 1990s tech boom revenues).

The Debt (Cumulative Stock)

Gross federal debt: ~$35 trillion (includes intragovernmental holdings)

Debt held by the public: ~$27 trillion (excludes Social Security and other trust funds)

The public debt measure is more relevant for financial markets because it represents actual borrowing from external sources—Treasury securities held by individuals, institutions, foreign governments, and the Federal Reserve.

Debt-to-GDP (Sustainability Ratio)

Formula: Debt-to-GDP = Debt Held by Public / Nominal GDP

Current level: ~99% (2024)

Why GDP matters: A country with larger economic output can sustain larger absolute debt. Japan has debt-to-GDP over 200% but hasn't defaulted because its economy generates sufficient revenues.

Historical Context

The pattern: Debt-to-GDP rises sharply during wars and recessions (WWII, 2008, 2020), then gradually declines during peace and expansion—but only if deficits are controlled.

Primary Deficit vs. Total Deficit

Primary Deficit

Definition: Deficit excluding net interest payments

Formula: Primary Deficit = Total Deficit - Net Interest

FY2024:

• Total deficit: ~$1.83 trillion
• Net interest: ~$870 billion
• Primary deficit: ~$960 billion

Why it matters: The primary deficit shows whether spending on programs (excluding debt service) is covered by revenues. A primary surplus means the government could stabilize debt-to-GDP if interest rates were low enough.

Interest Burden Dynamics

When interest expense exceeds growth rate times debt, debt-to-GDP rises even with a primary balance.

The arithmetic:

• If nominal GDP grows 5% and interest rate is 4%, debt-to-GDP stabilizes with modest primary deficits
• If nominal GDP grows 3% and interest rate is 5%, debt-to-GDP rises even with primary balance

Current situation: Rising rates have pushed net interest to ~$870 billion annually. If the 10-year Treasury averages 4.5% and GDP growth slows to 2%, the arithmetic becomes unfavorable.

Worked Example: Deficit Impact on Debt

Scenario: FY2025 deficit projected at $1.9 trillion

Starting position:

• Public debt (end FY2024): $27.0 trillion
• Nominal GDP (FY2025): $29.0 trillion

After FY2025:

• Public debt: $27.0T + $1.9T = $28.9 trillion
• Debt-to-GDP: $28.9T / $29.0T = 99.7%

10-year projection (CBO baseline):

• By 2034: Debt of ~$48 trillion, GDP of ~$39 trillion
• Debt-to-GDP: ~122%

The trajectory matters more than the level. Rising debt-to-GDP signals that deficits consistently exceed what GDP growth can absorb.

Market Implications

Treasury Supply and Demand

Large deficits require large Treasury issuance. The Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC) helps determine maturity mix:

Watch point: Quarterly Refunding Announcements (QRA) signal issuance plans. Larger-than-expected issuance can pressure long-term yields.

Term Premium and Fiscal Risk

Debt sustainability concerns manifest in term premium—the extra yield investors require for holding longer-duration Treasuries.

Historical pattern: Term premium was negative for much of 2010-2020 (flight to safety, Fed QE). It has turned positive as fiscal concerns grow and Fed reduces balance sheet.

Credit Rating Implications

The US was downgraded from AAA by:

• S&P: 2011 (to AA+)
• Fitch: 2023 (to AA+)
• Moody's: Still Aaa but negative outlook

Market impact: Limited immediate effect on Treasury yields (no alternative safe asset at scale), but downgrades signal investor concerns about fiscal trajectory.

Deficit Types and Quality

Cyclical vs. Structural Deficit

Cyclical deficit: Temporary deficit due to recession (automatic stabilizers, lower revenues)

Structural deficit: Underlying deficit that would exist at full employment

CBO estimate: The structural deficit is approximately $1.2 trillion annually—meaning even at full employment with no recession, the budget wouldn't balance.

Investment implication: Cyclical deficits normalize as the economy recovers. Structural deficits require policy changes to correct.

Investment vs. Consumption Spending

Not all deficits are equal in quality:

The nuance: Deficit-financed infrastructure that increases productivity may "pay for itself" through future GDP growth. Deficit-financed transfers don't generate direct economic returns (though they may have social value).

Common Pitfalls

Pitfall 1: Treating deficit as debt

Headlines saying "the debt increased by $1.8 trillion" often mean the deficit was $1.8 trillion. The debt is the cumulative total, not the annual change.

Pitfall 2: Ignoring denominator (GDP)

A $1 trillion deficit sounds large, but if GDP is $30 trillion, the deficit is ~3.3% of GDP—historically unremarkable outside recessions.

Pitfall 3: Assuming linear projections

CBO baseline projections assume current law continues. Tax cuts scheduled to expire are assumed to expire. If Congress extends them, projections are wrong.

Pitfall 4: Confusing gross and public debt

Gross debt ($35T) includes Social Security trust fund holdings—money the government owes itself. Public debt ($27T) is the market-relevant figure.

Sustainability Framework

The r-g Dynamic

r = interest rate, g = growth rate

• If r < g: Debt-to-GDP can stabilize even with primary deficits
• If r > g: Debt-to-GDP rises unless primary surpluses exist

Historical norm: r < g most of the time (until 2022-2024 rate surge)

Current situation: With 10-year Treasury at ~4.5% and nominal GDP growth of ~5%, r ≈ g. The favorable dynamic that allowed debt accumulation may be ending.

Fiscal Space

"Fiscal space" refers to a government's capacity to increase deficits without triggering crisis.

US advantages:

• Dollar reserve currency status
• Deep Treasury market liquidity
• Historical credibility

US constraints:

• Rising mandatory spending (demographics)
• Interest expense now significant budget share
• Political inability to address structural issues

Checklist for Fiscal Analysis

When Evaluating Deficit Headlines

• Distinguish deficit (flow) from debt (stock)
• Calculate deficit as % of GDP (normalizes for economy size)
• Identify cyclical vs. structural components
• Check if primary deficit or total deficit (interest included?)
• Note revenue vs. spending drivers

Quarterly Monitoring

• Review Monthly Treasury Statement for year-to-date deficit
• Track CBO budget updates for revised projections
• Watch Quarterly Refunding Announcement for issuance plans
• Monitor term premium (10Y-3M spread, ACM model)

Related Articles

• Federal Budget Components and Mandatory Spending
• Treasury Issuance Schedules and Auctions
• Sovereign Credit Ratings for the United States

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References

Congressional Budget Office (2024). The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2024 to 2034.

Blanchard, O. (2019). Public Debt and Low Interest Rates. American Economic Review.

U.S. Treasury Department (2024). Monthly Treasury Statement.

Auerbach, A. and Gale, W. (2023). Fiscal Analysis and the Future of US Fiscal Policy. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity.