Fiscal Multipliers and Output Gaps

When the government spends an additional dollar, how much does GDP increase? The answer depends on the fiscal multiplier—the ratio of GDP change to fiscal policy change. A multiplier of 1.5 means a $100 billion spending increase generates $150 billion in GDP growth. But multipliers vary widely depending on economic conditions, particularly whether the economy is operating below potential (negative output gap) or at capacity.

This relationship matters for investors assessing fiscal policy announcements. Stimulus during recession (large output gap) likely boosts growth; stimulus at full employment may mainly generate inflation.

The Fiscal Multiplier Defined

Formula: Fiscal Multiplier = Change in GDP / Change in Government Spending (or Taxes)

Example:

• Government increases spending by $200 billion
• GDP rises by $300 billion
• Multiplier = $300B / $200B = 1.5

The Multiplier Process

Round 1: Government spends $100 on goods/services. Workers receive wages.

Round 2: Workers spend 80% of wages ($80) on consumption. Businesses receive revenue.

Round 3: Businesses spend 80% of that ($64) on inputs/wages. More households receive income.

And so on: Each round diminishes as some income is saved or taxed.

Final result: The initial $100 generates total spending of $100 + $80 + $64 + $51 + ... = $500 (assuming 80% marginal propensity to consume and no other leakages).

Simple formula: Multiplier = 1 / (1 - MPC) = 1 / (1 - 0.8) = 5

Reality check: Actual multipliers are much lower than this simple formula suggests because of leakages (imports, taxes, savings) and crowding-out effects.

Empirical Multiplier Estimates

CBO and academic research estimate multipliers by policy type:

Key insight: Spending that reaches people likely to spend quickly has higher multipliers than tax cuts for those likely to save.

The Output Gap

Definition: The output gap is the difference between actual GDP and potential GDP, expressed as a percentage of potential.

Formula: Output Gap = (Actual GDP - Potential GDP) / Potential GDP

Negative gap: Economy operating below capacity; unemployment above natural rate; resources idle.

Positive gap: Economy running hot; unemployment below natural rate; inflation pressure building.

CBO Estimates (2024)

Current situation: With positive output gap, fiscal stimulus is more likely to increase inflation than real growth.

Why Multipliers Depend on the Output Gap

During Recession (Negative Gap)

Conditions:

• High unemployment
• Idle factory capacity
• Low interest rates
• Weak consumer demand

Multiplier effect: Government spending activates idle resources. Workers who would otherwise be unemployed produce goods and services. Little inflation because capacity exists.

Estimated multiplier: 1.5 - 2.5 in deep recessions

At Full Employment (No Gap)

Conditions:

• Low unemployment
• Capacity constraints
• Rising wages
• Robust demand

Multiplier effect: Government spending competes with private sector for limited resources. Workers shift from private to public projects. Price increases rather than output increases.

Estimated multiplier: 0.5 - 1.0 at full employment

Crowding Out

At full employment, government spending can "crowd out" private investment:

1. Direct crowding out: Government hires workers that firms wanted
2. Financial crowding out: Government borrowing raises interest rates, reducing private borrowing
3. Resource crowding out: Government claims materials/equipment in short supply

The implication: Large deficits during expansion may reduce private investment rather than boost total output.

Worked Example: ARRA vs. ARP

American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (2009)

Context:

• Output gap: approximately -7%
• Unemployment: 10%
• Interest rates: near zero

Stimulus size: ~$800 billion over 2009-2012

Estimated multiplier: CBO estimated 1.0 - 2.5

Result: Helped stop job losses; unemployment fell gradually. High multiplier because of large output gap.

American Rescue Plan (2021)

Context:

• Output gap: approximately -2% (recovering)
• Unemployment: 6.3% (falling)
• Interest rates: near zero

Stimulus size: ~$1.9 trillion in one year

Estimated multiplier: Likely 0.5 - 1.5 (lower because gap was closing)

Result: Contributed to strong demand recovery but also to inflation. Some economists argue the gap was closing and stimulus was excessive.

Lesson: Same-sized stimulus has different effects depending on the output gap.

Monetary Policy Interaction

With Accommodative Monetary Policy

When the Fed keeps rates low to support stimulus:

• No financial crowding out
• Multiplier is higher
• Examples: 2009-2015, 2020-2021

With Restrictive Monetary Policy

When the Fed raises rates to offset stimulus:

• Financial crowding out occurs
• Multiplier is reduced or eliminated
• The Fed can essentially offset fiscal stimulus

Current regime consideration: With Fed focused on inflation, fiscal stimulus may be partially offset by tighter monetary policy, reducing effective multiplier.

Investor Implications

Assessing Fiscal Stimulus Announcements

High impact scenario:

• Large negative output gap
• Accommodative monetary policy
• Spending targeted at high-MPC recipients
• Expected multiplier: 1.5+

Low impact scenario:

• No output gap or positive gap
• Restrictive monetary policy
• Tax cuts for high earners
• Expected multiplier: 0.5 or less

Sector Implications

Inflation Watch

High multipliers during slack = growth with contained inflation

Low multipliers at full employment = inflation without much growth

The investment translation: Fiscal stimulus at full employment is more likely to hurt bond prices (inflation) than help equity earnings (limited real growth).

Common Pitfalls

Pitfall 1: Assuming constant multipliers

Multipliers vary dramatically with economic conditions. The same policy has different effects in 2009 vs. 2021.

Pitfall 2: Ignoring policy composition

Aggregate stimulus size matters less than composition. $100 billion to unemployed workers generates more spending than $100 billion in corporate tax cuts.

Pitfall 3: Forgetting monetary offset

If the Fed tightens in response to fiscal stimulus, the net effect on growth is reduced.

Pitfall 4: Ignoring timing lags

Infrastructure spending has high multipliers but long lags. By the time projects complete, the output gap may have closed.

Monitoring Checklist

Evaluating Fiscal Announcements

• Check current output gap (CBO estimates)
• Assess composition (transfers vs. tax cuts vs. purchases)
• Note Fed policy stance (accommodative or restrictive)
• Estimate likely multiplier based on conditions
• Consider timing and implementation lags

Quarterly Review

• Update output gap estimate (CBO quarterly updates)
• Monitor capacity utilization data
• Track unemployment relative to natural rate
• Assess inflation trends (demand-pull signals)

Related Articles

• Discretionary Spending vs. Automatic Stabilizers
• Fiscal Policy During Recessions vs. Expansions
• Interplay Between Fiscal and Monetary Policy

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References

Congressional Budget Office (2024). Estimated Multipliers for Fiscal Policy Changes.

Ramey, V. (2019). Ten Years After the Financial Crisis: What Have We Learned from the Renaissance in Fiscal Research? Journal of Economic Perspectives.

Blanchard, O. and Leigh, D. (2013). Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers. American Economic Review.

Auerbach, A. and Gorodnichenko, Y. (2012). Measuring the Output Responses to Fiscal Policy. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy.