Economic Indicators
Economic indicators are the vital signs of an economy — GDP growth, unemployment, inflation, consumer confidence, and more. These articles explain what each indicator measures, how to interpret releases, and which data points actually move markets versus which ones are just noise for investors.
Durable Goods Orders and Capex Signals
How durable goods orders data reveals business investment trends, including the importance of core capital goods orders for GDP forecasting.
Glossary: US Economic Indicator Terms
A comprehensive reference of key terms used in US economic data releases and analysis.
Retail Sales and Control Group Analysis
How to interpret the monthly retail sales report, why the control group matters for GDP, and what drives month-to-month volatility.
Regional Fed Surveys (Empire, Philly, etc.)
How regional Federal Reserve bank surveys provide early reads on manufacturing and business conditions, including interpretation of key survey metrics.
PMI and ISM Manufacturing Index
How the Purchasing Managers Index works, what the 50-level threshold means, and how to interpret manufacturing survey data for economic analysis.
Employment Reports: Nonfarm Payrolls and Household Survey
How the two main employment surveys work, why they sometimes diverge, and what investors should focus on in the monthly jobs report.
Building a Macro Dashboard Spreadsheet
How to create a practical economic indicator tracking system, including data sources, update frequency, and interpretation frameworks.
Existing vs. New Home Sales Indicators
Understanding the differences between existing and new home sales data, what each reveals about housing market health, and their limitations.
Inflation Metrics: CPI, Core CPI, and PCE
Understanding the differences between CPI, Core CPI, and PCE inflation measures, including how each is calculated and why the Fed prefers PCE for policy decisions.
Corporate Earnings as Macro Data
Every quarter, roughly 400 S&P 500 companies report results within a six-week window, and the aggregate picture they paint is one of the most actionable macro signals available. In Q4 2025, blended...
Leading vs. Lagging vs. Coincident Indicators
Leading indicators predict economic turns before they happen, lagging indicators confirm trends already underway, and coincident indicators reveal the economy's current state. Understanding which is which prevents costly mistiming.
Housing Starts, Permits, and Builder Confidence
Understanding residential construction indicators, their leading indicator properties, and how to interpret housing supply data.
Consumer Confidence and Sentiment Surveys
How the Conference Board and University of Michigan surveys differ, what they predict about consumer spending, and their limitations as economic indicators.
Understanding GDP Releases and Revisions
How the Bureau of Economic Analysis releases GDP data, including advance, second, and third estimates, plus annual revisions that reshape the economic narrative.
Inventory-to-Sales Ratios
Understanding how inventory-to-sales ratios signal economic turning points, including sector-specific thresholds and interpretation guidelines.
ISM Services and Composite Measures
Understanding the ISM Services PMI, why it matters more than manufacturing in the US economy, and how to interpret composite economic indicators.
Financial Conditions Indexes
How financial conditions indexes aggregate credit spreads, rates, and volatility into a single measure, and what tightening or loosening conditions mean for markets.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
How the Federal Reserve measures factory output and capacity use, including sector breakdowns and their relationship to inflation and investment.
Jobless Claims as a Weekly Signal
How initial and continuing unemployment claims provide real-time labor market signals, including key thresholds and interpretation guidelines.
Unemployment Rate, Participation, and Wage Growth
Beyond the headline unemployment rate: understanding labor force participation, the U-6 measure, and what wage data signals about economic conditions.